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Electric Vehicles Expected to Account for 15 to 35% of World’s Vehicle Sales in 2040

Electric vehicles could make up 15 to 35% of total new vehicle sales globally in 2040, according to IHS Markit, a Nasdaq listed consulting company focused on critical information, analytics and solutions.

The findings are part of a new research project, Reinventing the Wheel, that will be conducted over the first half of 2017.

“The key question is whether we are approaching a transformative shift akin to the first decade of the 20th century, when the internal combustion engine, cheap gasoline, bicycle technology and mass production combined to usher in the automotive age,” said Dr. Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit and chairman of the study, who wrote about the beginning of the automotive age in his most recent book, The Quest. “Converging developments along multiple tracks are leading us to focus on this important question.”

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Ghana’s Crude Oil Production Shoots up by 50%

By Ngozi Lee, in Accra

Ghana’s production has leaped from 100,000BOPD in August to 150,000BOPD in early November, 2016, as result of the TEN cluster of fields coming on stream.

The cluster, which came online in August, added 50,000BOPD to the existing Jubilee oilfield production, which had recovered from a set back to around 100,000BOPD. “Gross production from the Jubilee field has been steady at around 100,000 BOPD since August, as remedial works on the positioning of FPSO Nkrumah improved.

Forecast 2016 gross production from both the Jubilee field and TEN field come to 89,000BOPD (average annualised).
Jubilee field output had crashed to less than 70,000BOPD for most of the year prior to August, because of the problem crated by the malfunction of the FPSO’s turret system.

TEN is expected to increase in output in 2017, but would still remain less than the anticipated peak production of 80,000BOPD.


Change in Strategy Quickened Aje’s Trip to First Oil

The decision to change the field development strategy from a full, integrated oil, gas condensate and LPG all at once, to a phased development beginning from crude oil production, accelerated the pace of the Aje Field to market.
The Final Investment Decision for the Field was taken at the onset of one of the biggest crude oil price crashes in history, although the asset’s equity partners were not fully cognisant of it as of then. “We took the decision when the price was at $74”, Bolaji Musah, acting Managing Director, Yinka Folawiyo Petroleum (YFP) Company Limited, told a gathering of petroleum geoscientists at a technical meeting recently.
Aje field is located in Oil Mining Lease (OML) 113, in the Benin Basin, offshore Lagos, Nigeria’s financial hub. It commenced commercial production in May 2016.

The industry became even more challenging in the course of the project construction. “We were drilling Aje-5 when crude prices touched $27”, Musah said.
The first cargo of Aje crude, some 218,000 barrels, were exported in mid -September 2016, when crude oil prices were slightly above $40.

“If we had kept to the integrated oil, gas condensate and LPG development at once, we wouldn’t have been here today”, he explained to the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE).
Musah’s statement was a veiled reference to Chevron’s operatorship of the field. The US oil major took charge as technical advisor in 2006 and exited the asset in 2011. Its plan for integrated oil, gas condensate and LPG development was t have taken Aje to first gas in late 2017 and oi production much later.

Aje field reserves are relatively marginal (The FID was taken at 35Million Barrels of Oil P50), even more so for an offshore asset at a water depth in excess of 100metres. “It is a poor boy kind of development”, Musah declared.

Folawiyo Aje Services Ltd (FASL) is a wholly owned subsidiary of YFP and serves as the Technical Advisor for the JV. It is made up of consultants and staff from the JV partners, who include New Age Exploration Nigeria Limited, EER (Colobus) Nigeria Limited, Pan Petroleum (Panoro Energy) Aje Limited and PR Oil & Gas Nigeria Limited. The Aje field currently producers around 6,000BOPD and it is the first full scale commercial oil production in Nigeria, outside of the Niger Delta region.


Leave NLNG Alone, Sell The Fuel Depots, Avuru Urges

Austin Avuru, Chief Executive Officer of Seplat, Africa’s largest home grown E&P independent, has identified five main assets, owned by the Nigerian state, which “are serving as drain on the country’s economy”.
Four of the five are in the oil and gas sector.

In his contribution to the ongoing national debate regarding sale of national assets, Avuru wrote that Nigeria needs“a critical injection of a fairly large dose of foreign exchange to stabilise the economy and arrest the drift of the Naira. The economic management team has put out the figure of between 10 and 15Billion US dollars as the minimum cash injection required. The quick question is: How can you possibly generate that kind of volume of forex over the next six to 12 months?

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GE To Expand Egyptian Facility By Mid 2017

GE Oil & Gas is in the process of almost doubling its local service facility in Egypt from 3,000km2 to 5,000km2.
The property, located in the free zone, is on course to be fully operational by mid-2017. It will be home to more than 100 high-value technical, engineering and service jobs held by Egyptians.

“It will handle the assembly, disassembly, repair, maintenance and testing of products serving firms both in Egypt and internationally”, the company declares.It will include a training centre for GE customers and employees. “The learning programmes will help expand local Egyptian expertise regarding the operation and service of the GE products being handled at the facility”, the company explains.

Egypt’s upstream oil and gas sector continues to be a major bright spot for the country’s economy, following a string of new discoveries in 2015. It’s a sector experiencing growth, and GE Oil & Gas is expanding its local service facility to deliver additional capabilities to customers working in this industry. “We are proud to be a partner to GE, one of the world’s leading providers of advanced technologies and services,” stated Mr. Mohamed Khodair, Chairman of the General Authority for GAFI. “By creating the right investment environment, GE is now able to expand its operations and investment in the free zone which will support Egypt industrially and economically.”


PreSalt Won’t Give Angola What It Wants

Angola’s plan to maintain production over two million barrels of crude oil per day in the near term is predicated on huge discovery of oil in the PreSalt section of the deepwater Kwanza Basin.
But that’s not going to happen, even though Angolan officials have not admitted the stark evidence in front of them.
“PreSalt is the biggest factor in helping Angola accomplish the goal of stabilising production of oil above 2Million Barrels Per Day within the next five years”, Paulino Jeronimo, Chief Executive of the state hydrocarbon company Sonangol, told The Oil &Gas Year, in 2014. At the time, he…
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ENI Consolidates Lead as Africa’s Top Hydrocarbon Producer

By Toyin Akinosho, in Lagos
The continent’s leading domestic gas supplier is close to becoming its major exporter
With an offtaker firmly secured for its floating LNG project offshore Mozambique, Italian major ENI has consolidated its position as the lead producer and merchant of Africa’s gas resources.

The signing of a binding LNG sale agreement with BP Poseidon Ltd, for the sale, of all the volumes of LNG that will be produced from the Coral South Floating LNG facility, puts ENI in a position to challenge Shell as the continent’s top gas exporter.
ENI is already far ahead of any of the majors as the go-to supplier of gas in the domestic economy, especially  for electrical power production, but with the 22MMTPA (Million tons per annum) Nigerian LNG, which Shell dominates, it has struggled to surpass the Anglo Dutch major in export.

The Coral South Floating LNG facility will have a capacity 3.3MTPA of LNG, about a sixth of Nigerian LNG capacity, but ENI holds 50% of Area 4, whereas Shell has 26% of Nigerian LNG. The sales agreement for Coral has been approved by the Government of Mozambique and is conditional on the Final Investment Decision (FID) of the whole project which is expected within 2016.

Gas has made ENI Africa’s top hydrocarbon producer. Whereas it lags behind in liquids production, it has been aggressive with natural gas. Its Zohr project offshore Egypt, will deliver 700 Million standard cubic feet a day (MMscf/d) at peak, sometime in 2019.

ENI is involved in gas projects in all the countries in which it has production. Gas sales from Libya averaged 911MMscf/d in 2014, despite the war. In Egypt, the company produced 649.8MMscf/d, while it delivered 324.1MMscf/d in Nigeria and 145.1MMscf/d in Congo. ENI produced a total of 196.2MMsc/d in Algeria, Angola and Tunisia combined.

In the same year Shell came a distant second to ENI in African gas production (domestic and export) in 2014 with output of 791MMscf/d and TOTAL produced 693MMscf/d, both of them mainly from Nigeria.

ENI’s largest gas project on the continent remains the Western Gas project in Libya, whose output is split 20:80 between domestic use and export (to Italy). ENI contributes significantly to the Egyptian national domestic gas grid and participates in major gas projects in Nigeria (it is responsible for over 10% of the country’s electricity generation with a gas to power project that delivers roughly 120MMsc/d to a thermal plant with 480MW nameplate capacity). The company is also the leading natural gas producer in Congo, where it constructed the Centrale Electrique du Congo (CEC), a 300 MW gas-fueled power station that is expandable to 450 MW.

The other Concessionaires in Area 4 Mozambique are Galp Energia, KOGAS and Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH) with a 10% stake each. CNPC owns a 20% indirect interest in Area 4 through Eni East Africa.


Industry Supports the Continent’s Biggest Literacy Campaign

The oil industry in Nigeria is lining up in support of the Lagos Book and Art Festival (LABAF), the largest culture picnic in Africa and the continent’s most invigorating feast of the written word.toyin
The Niger Delta Petroleum Resources, Pillar Oil and Platform Petroleum, all Nigerian independents, have supported the 17 year Festival over the past six years.

Lekoil and Neconde weighed in with their backing in 2015 and Lekoil has pledged cash support for 2016.
Midwestern Oil and Gas gave significant financial support in 2013. So did Esso Exploration Nigeria, the deepwater subsidiary of ExxonMobil in the country. Ofserv, an oil service firm, has been a location sponsor since 2015, paying for hotel accommodation for festival participants who fly into Lagos.

Waltersmith Petroman is the latest to commit.
“The LABAF will remain one of the main functions that we support outside of our host communities”, says Layiwola Fatona, Managing Director of Niger Delta Petroleum Resources.“Just be clear on this”, declares Spencer Onosode, Pillar Oil’s Managing Director and a keen lover of books, “We are Partners”.
Hosted at the Freedom Park, site of an old colonial prison renovated into scenic grounds incorporating an art gallery, an auditorium, a museum, food court, amphitheatre and concert space, LABAF runs two parallel programmes; (1) the Adult programme involving discussions around books, book exhibition and fair, visual art display, poetry slam and musical performances, film screenings and art stampede and (2) a workshop-heavy, interactive Youth programme catering to young people between the ages of 9 and 16.

LABAF’s proposition to Nigeria’s leading oil explorers is to use the event to bolster their image as companies keen on the idea of rejuvenating the okotieculture of book reading and engagement with ideas.
Nigeria is home to 170Million people and part of LABAF’s raison d’être is to convert as many as possible of this number into true human capital.
The Festival encourages oil companies to bring young people from the communities where they operate to participate in the Festival’s youth programme, which involves three days of literacy and literary exercises, art and craft workshops, mentorship and book reviews.

Outside these corporate brands, a number of selfless individual oil workers back the Festival in a significant way; by donating the books that are then sent to reviewers and discussants who make up the panels in the several readings and discussion segments which constitute LABAF.

Last year Shell geologist Kehinde Olafiranye shipped in 20 copies of books, including Tom Burgis’ The Looting Machine and Ari Shavit’s My Promised Land for the purpose of two sessions at the 17th LABAF. This year he has ordered three copies of two books; Inside Terrorist Organizations, by David C., 1985. (ed) and 2)Jihad in the West: The Rise of Militant Salafism, by Egerton Frazer.  Bashir Koledoye, a former Chevron geologist who now owns a geoscience consultancy firm named D’Harmattan, bought copies of nine books in 2014, donated money for books in 2015 and in 2016 delivered six copies of three books (two for each) including The Yacoubian Building by Alaa Al Aswany, Terrorism and the Politics of Fear by David Altheide, and The Spirit of Terrorism, by Jean Baudrillard. Dickson Okotie, a consultant Early Production Facility (EPF) engineer, shipped in 10 books in 2013.ojelabi

In 2014, Dayo Ojo, an ExxonMobil “alumnus” who runs a reputation management company for the industry in Lagos, ordered fifteen copies of both the French scholar Thomas Picketty’s hefty tome: Capital in the 21st Century and Dambisa Moyo’s How The West Was Lost, for the purpose of a session titled Key To The Knowledge Economy. This year, Mr. Ojo has donated copies of Joe Stiglitz’s new book: The Great Divide, Unequal Societies and What To Do With Them, which will be discussed by participants at this year’s session on Key To The Knowledge Economy.

The earliest donors of watersmithbooks to the Festival included Layiwola Adeniji, a Chevron Nigeria communications specialist and Adedoja Ojelabi, former President of the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) as well as Femi Aisida, a former Petroleum Engineer with Shell, each donating upwards of 20 books for three consecutive years between 2011 and 2013.

LABAF organisers are encouraged by this show of support for the finer elements of human civilisation by companies and individuals whose jobs involve the old fashioned business of extracting fossil fuels. “This tells us something”, says Jahman Anikulapo, programme chairman of the Committee for Relevant Art (CORA) and the Festival Director, “The Lagos Book and Art Festival is an important event and we will keep driving it”.
The 2016 edition of LABAF runs from November 10 to November 13 at the Freedom Park in Lagos. The theme is The Tryranny of Knowledge; Literacy is a terrifying weapon against the forces of darkness. Please join us.
Signed

Toyin Akinosho, publisher Africa Oil+Gas Report and Secretary General of CORA, organisers of LABAF.


Avoiding The Avengers

By Toyin Akinosho

A number of alternative crude export routes outside the mainstream pipeline system are being implemented

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Africa Wrestles With Asia Over Chevron’s Investment Pie

Chevron expended about $2.8Billion on various offshore development and natural gas projects in Africa in 2015; in Nigeria, Angola and Republic of the Congo.

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