Thibault Lemaire, an economist at the International Monetary Fund, has expressed the view that both the ExxonMobil led Rovuma Basin LNG project and the TOTALEnergies operated Mozambique LNG facility will be online by 2029.
Noe of these two companies have been definitive about dates of project delivery.
The 13Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum TOTAL operated project, which took Financial Investment Decision in 2019, is held up four years after the FID by the security issues in the surrounding areas outside the perimeters of the site, on the Afungi Peninsula in Cabo Delgado Province, in Mozambique’s far north.
The 15MMTPA ExxonMobil led facility has not reached financial close.
But Mr. Lemaire, a French national covering African projects, is a ranking executive at the IMF, so is expected to have searching insight.
He told the Portuguese news agency Lusa that he expects the consortiums led by TOTALEnergies and ExxonMobil to start gas production in Mozambique in 2027 and 2029, respectively.
“Two onshore liquefied natural gas exploration projects are expected to start production in 2027 and 2029, which will have a positive impact on growth via production, tax revenues and the current account,” LemaIre said, noting that TOTAL would return to Mozambique after work was suspended due to violence in the north of the country and that ExxonMobil would soon make a positive final investment decision for Mozambique.
The projects, to be both sited onshore with long, part subsea pipelines to the deepwater reserves below 2,00metre water depth in the Indian Ocean
Lemaire spoke with Lusa, following the release of the report on forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa, presented as part of the Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank.
The IMF expects Mozambique’s economic expansion to accelerate, after the 4.1% growth recorded in 2022, an increase from the 2.3% recorded in 2021, following the worst phase of the pandemic, and with recoveries in the hotel, transport and communications sectors. “For 2023, and in the medium term, we expect a new recovery, growth of 5% in 2023 will be driven by the extractive industries, including the first LNG facility: the 3.4MMTPA Coral South, a Floating LNG project, whose export commenced at the end of 2022.