By Sully Manope, in Abuja
Every month, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission convenes a meeting of operating companies and the Dangote Refinery in a room at a princely hotel in Abuja. The March 2026 edition of the meeting took place on Mach 16, 2026.
In that meeting the operators are obliged to offer cargoes of crude to Dangote Refinery as part of their Domestic Obligation. And they all do. “All the producers offer cargoes of Nigerian crude to Dangote”, several operators tell Africa Oil + Gas Report. “What the producers offer Dangote is much more than it purchases”, they say. What the NNPC offers Dangote is oftentimes double what it purchases, one source says. “The offer they get from Nigeria is more than the capacity the 650,000Barrel Per Stream Day refinery”. This article is based on interviews with personnel in five producing companies including NNPC, all of who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive industry matters. Indeed, as a rule, operators do not officially discuss operational details that come across as political.
As the Dangote Group has persistently reinstated in public that Nigerian operators are reluctant to sell it crude, Africa Oil + Gas Report decided to find out from operators themselves what truly is the situation. “They don’t necessarily want to buy at market prices”, some operators explain. “They want private operators to sell crude to them at the Fiscal price”, some operators disclose. “ But nobody can sell to you at the fiscal price (fiscal price is the price at which the government computes your taxes and royalties).
“You can’t ask me to sell less than I sell to Vitol or Gunvor”, one operator says. The Dangote group has often asked international companies operating in Nigeria to sell it crude directly, and has complained that the companies sell only though their trading arms.
Africa Oil + Gas Report learnt, from talking with operators who take part in the monthly Domestic Crude Obligation meeting that the NNPC always offers Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals (DPRP) everything available (Not committed to debt obligations or USD Cash Calls) to buy in Naira. “They select what they want and return the rest to the NNPC”, the sources say.
Dangote refinery’s CEO David Bird declared on March 25, 2026 that the plant receives “only five of the monthly 13 to 15 crude cargo needs under the crude-for-naira programme”. But Africa Oil + Gas Report sources affirm: “We’d often offer up to 10 cargoes and they’d typically take about five (5)”.
When news broke that Dangote Refinery received 10 crude oil cargoes from the NNPC in March 2026, doubling its previous monthly average of five, we asked our sources what happened. Their response: “They decided to receive 10 cargoes this time”. The news report noted that shipment included six cargoes paid for in naira and four in dollars, but those who are close to the transaction said that NNPC finally agreed to receive payment in naira for seven cargoes and in dollars for fthree cargoes.
Some of the arguments by operators are not new. They have been part of the debate in the media. Dangote spokespersons have lamented that Nigerian operators offer Dangote at premium prices, with the comments coming across as if those prices are meant as disincentives. This narrative suggests that there is a denial of Nigerian crude to Dangote which forces the refinery to imports that expose it to global price hikes.
But our multiple sources unanimously counter that the contrary is the case. Nigerian crude is priced much higher than the imports that Dangote bring into the country. $3.74Billion worth of imported crude credited to the Dangote Refinery in 2025 could have been worth $4.5bBllion, if all of those those crudes were sourced from Nigeria on a willing buyer, willing seller basis. As of late April 2026, Nigerian Bonny Light crude is trading at a significant premium to West Texas Intermediate (WTI), fueled by geopolitical tensions, with Bonny Light reaching approximately $113–$130 per barrel, while WTI hovers around $92–$96 per barrel
“In the PSCs, if you bring in a law that affects the commercial terms in which the contract is signed, NNPC has to make it a whole if you market at a lower price”, our sources explain.
“Anything about Nigeria crude oil supply to Dangote is within his control”.
