All articles in the ENERGY TRANSITION Section:

Africa’s leading builder of renewable energy plants says it has successfully reached Commercial Operations Date (COD) for the second phase of its 1.1 GW Obelisk solar and 100 MW/200 MWh battery storage project in Egypt.

“Completing Africa’s largest hybrid solar and battery installation demonstrates our ability to develop, finance, and deliver large-scale renewable energy projects in emerging markets. Obelisk will supply clean, reliable power to Egypt for 25 years and is a tangible contribution to the country’s energy security and transition,” says Terje Pilskog, CEO of Scatec.

The Obelisk project has been built in two phases. The first phase comprises 561 MW of solar capacity and the total 100 MW/200 MWh battery energy storage system, while the second phase now adds an additional 564 MW of solar capacity. The Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) was signed in November 2024 and the project has been completed in record time.

The Obelisk project has an expected abatement of more than 1.2illion tonnes of CO₂ emissions per year. It is projected to deliver over 3,000 GWh of clean energy annually, which will be supplied to the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) under a 25-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) denominated in USD.

With Obelisk now fully operational alongside the 380 MW BenBan solar plant, Scatec has approximately 1,500MW in operation in Egypt. Scatec’s near-term growth portfolio in Egypt further includes more than 4,300 MW of renewable energy capacity and 4.1 GWh of battery storage capacity, with the total combined portfolio expected to deliver approximately 17 TWh of clean electricity annually and provide critical grid stability support. Egypt remains one of Scatec’s most important long-term growth markets.

Scatec is the controlling shareholder of the project with National Bank of Egypt, Norfund and EDF Power Solutions as minority equity partners. The project has been financed with the support of leading development finance institutions, with European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), African Development Bank (AfDB), British International Investment (BII) and European Investment Bank (EIB) acting as senior lenders. Scatec has developed and delivered the project through its fully integrated business model, providing Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC), Asset Management (AM) and Operations & Maintenance (O&M) services across the full project lifecycle.

By Gerard Kreeft

The Lobito Corridor, which traverses 1300 kilometres east through Angola from the Atlantic Ocean coast to the border with the Demcratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and within easy reach of the Zambian border, is fast becoming an important trade route for critical raw materials(CRMs). The Lobito Corridor is attracting attention from a series of competing interests– China, Europe and the USA.

Yet their interests do not necessarily dovetail. The Chinese strategy, implemented through the country’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has developed a virtual monopoly position  in copper-cobalt mining interests in the DRC and Zambia.

Europe and the United States are playing catch-up and have signed various agreements to ensure transparency, good governance, sustainable development and local content. All lovely agreements for the political folks back home but finding little traction within Angola-DRC- Zambia.

This is a story of China’s economic power-play, which has spanned decades and is being carried out on a global scale, unfathomable to western policy-makers. The Chinese are playing a long-game in which Chinese economic interests are displayed; and if per chance the local African economies can benefit from the Chinese game-plan this is seen as an additional bonus. But this story is also an important chapter in the energy transition. Understanding where copper-cobalt comes from you can begin to understand that such critical raw materials play a pivotal role in the electric batteries that drive our electrical vehicles.

To date through its BRI programme 150 countries have participated and since 2013 China has spent $1.4Trillion on construction and investment projects around the globe. What the Chinese in this period of time have invested is almost equal to what the World Bank has invested since its inception in 1944: nearly $1.5Trillion in developing nations and post-war reconstruction efforts deployed as grants, loans, and credits to fund critical infrastructure, education, and poverty reduction projects worldwide. In short BRI is China’s counter position to what the World Bank and regional development banks symbolize.

What is the Chinese Game Plan? 

The China Belt and Road Initiative Investment Report 2025, authored by Christoph Nedopil Wang, provides an excellent summary of what the Chinese have carried out to date and an indication of what the future will entail. Nedopil Wang is the Founding Director of the Green Finance & Development Center and a Visiting Professor at the Fanhai International School of Finance (FISF) at Fudan University in Shanghai, China. He is also a Professor at The University of Queensland and the lead for Asia Pacific Industry Transitions.

China’s copper value chain in the DRC involves specific constraints and activities; Chinese companies control over 70% of the copper-cobalt mines and output in the DRC. They rely heavily on modern extraction methods to yield high-grade copper cathodes in country.

The vast majority of Congolese copper—both concentrate and cathodes—is exported directly to China to manufacture green energy technologies, electronics, and infrastructure. The DRC lacks the domestic downstream manufacturing to fully close the loop locally. In the DRC, copper is simply extracted and smelted into raw materials to feed China’s domestic manufacturing and circular economy.

A true “total life cycle” process which includes closing the loop through product manufacturing, consumer use, and domestic recycling is simply a bridge too far for the DRC.

China’s production of copper and cobalt is only one example of China’s Belt and Road Initiative(BRI), China’s investment vehicle.

Key findings:

• In 2025 Africa topped the list reaching US$61.2 billion with Republic of Congo receiving $23.1 billion.
• 2025 saw the highest BRI engagement ever for any year, with $128.4Billion in construction contracts and about $85.2Billion in investments;
• Metals and mining sector reached new records with about $32.6Billion;
• Copper, in support of data centers saw a significant surge of Chinese investment in 2025.

Preliminary data on Chinese engagement in the 150 countries of the Belt and Road Initiative through investments and construction contracts show record levels:

• $128.4Billion (+81% compared to 2024) in construction contracts
• $85.2Billion (+62% compared to 2024) in investment

This equals to a total engagement of $213.5Billion through construction contracts and investments in about 350 deals in 2025 (+19% in deal numbers compared to 2024).

Cumulatively, Chinese BRI engagement has reached $1.4Trillion since 2013 of which $837Billion in construction and $561Billion in investments (see Figure 1 below).

Figure 1 : China’s BRI engagement by sector since 2013(left) and cumulative(right)

Source: China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2025

Current Status of the Lobito Corridor

In a timely study entitled The Lobito Corridor: A frontier for transition mineral partnerships in Africa, published by the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) in May 2026, a plea is made for how the Corridor could serve multiple purposes to catalyse investments across a number of sectors– logistics, energy, agriculture and industrial services—and “… lower the cost of importing fertilisers, chemicals and agricultural inputs into producer countries, reinforcing the Corridor’s relevance to broader economic development.” 

According to the report, the full financial investment will require $6-8Billion: combining rail rehabilitation, upgrades and the greenfield Zambia link. To date only 15-25% in financing has been publicly announced or committed by donors, development finance institutions and concessionaires, mainly on the Angolan leg and initial works in the DRC.

Then there is the matter of how the value chain can be extended: positioning the region within global battery and EV value chains. The report acknowledges that…”developing EV value chains in Central Africa is complex and will require coordinated regional action”.

The report continues …“The DRC and Zambia have strengthened cooperation through the DRC–Zambia Bilateral Cooperation Agreement on the Battery and Clean Energy Value Chain, which established a joint Battery Council to support regulatory alignment, identify pilot projects and guide infrastructure development, including special economic zones. The Battery Council is supported by Afreximbank, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and ARISE Integrated Industrial Platforms, and a pre-feasibility study led by ARISE has been completed, with a full feasibility assessment now under way”…

A Bloomberg NEF study investigated the feasibility of establishing special economic zones for manufacturing battery precursors in the DRC and Zambia: costing $2.7 Billion. Such a facility in the DRC would be three times cheaper than it would cost to building a similar plant in the USA because of cost competitiveness and proximity to raw materials.

Boosting Local Content

EITI argues  that ”near-term progress is most realistic in simple fabrication activities such as copper rods, wiring and low-voltage cables that serve regional construction and electrification markets”.  The agency says “these segments are less technology-intensive, offer meaningful job creation, and can strengthen industrial capabilities if supported through targeted fiscal incentives, improved credit access and workforce-development programmes.”

According to the report though,   the number of firms able to produce entry-level copper rods or wiring across Southern and Central Africa for basic electrical products is limited.

EITI also expresses the hope that domestic smelting and refining capacity can be expanded, particularly as both the DRC and Zambia continue to export significant volumes at intermediate processing stages.

Some Final Remarks

Multilateral clamour–mostly from the developed world—that the Lobito Corridor must ensure transparency, good governance, sustainable development and local content are well-intended sound bites, but have little to do with political reality.

Instead look in the direction of China and think again about the 150 countries which are engaged with China’s BRI investment programme. China is where the power and strategy for  the Lobito Corridor will be ultimately decided. With its massive global investments—US$1.4 trillion in the period 2013-2025, China is demonstrating where the real power is.

Of course, the Chinese will listen to reasonable demands to make the Lobito Corridor a corridor that will help spur regional development and growth in the region. The caveat being dependent on how much  financing the industrial countries are prepared to undertake and help underwrite Chinese interests.  Money has never been the problem…but the piper playing the tune will ultimately decide the scope, speed and direction of how the Lobito Corridor will be further developed. The Lobito Corridor is one example of China’s growing imperial power.

Gerard Kreeft, BA (Calvin University, Grand Rapids, USA) and MA (Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada), Energy Transition Adviser, was founder and owner of EnergyWise.  He has managed and implemented energy conferences, seminars and university master classes in Alaska, Angola, Brazil, Canada, India, Libya, Kazakhstan, Russia and throughout Europe.  Kreeft has Dutch and Canadian citizenship and resides in the Netherlands.  He writes on a regular basis for Africa Oil + Gas Report, and guest contributor to IEEFA(Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis). His book ‘The 10 Commandments of the Energy Transition ‘is on sale at https://books.friesenpress.com/store/title/119734000211674846/Gerard-Kreeft-The-10-Commandments-of-the-Energy-Transition

By Gerard Kreeft

Security and reliability  of energy have always been the hallmark of the oil and gas industry. Yet the Strait of Hormuz crisis has reminded us how vulnerable the world has become by relying  so heavily on oil and gas. The implications are far-reaching, both for the industrial countries but also for Africa, and in particular for Sub-Sahara Africa.

While Sub-Sahara Africa will no doubt benefit from the impulse that new energy will bring, we must not forget that Africa is playing catch-up in terms of energy deficiency. The low-carbon opportunity is widely recognized within Africa, but there is still an urgent need to develop clear visions for the future of Africa’s electricity and energy systems and what it will take to deliver them.

Schroders, the international investment firm, has outlined  four key conclusions to consider:

“Flipping the Intermittency Argument: Historically, solar and wind were criticized for being unreliable or “intermittent” compared to fossil fuels. The Hormuz disruption flipped this narrative, demonstrating that relying on global supply chains and foreign fossil fuel choke points is equally intermittent and highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.”

“Strengthening the Risk-Return Case: Because wind and solar generation costs do not require fossil fuel inputs, they insulate economies from global price spikes. “This dynamic supports the risk-return case for energy transition infrastructure,” notes  Duncan Hale, Portfolio Manager at Schroders Greencoat.  “As higher power prices weigh on traditional equities, renewable assets with merchant price exposure are seeing a boost to short-term returns.”

“Broadening the Opportunity Set: The urgent need for power independence is accelerating government investments not just in core renewables, but also in enabling technologies like battery storage, modernized transmission grids, and green hydrogen.

“Diversification Benefits: Schroders notes that investments in the energy transition have low correlation with many traditional asset classes. This allows the sector to serve as an effective defensive shield against the inflation and volatility triggered by oil and LNG supply disruptions.”

Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC ) have expressed hope that the present crisis will be a watershed moment for the Energy Transition.

Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief executive predicts that  “Governments will review their energy strategies. There will be a significant boost to renewables and nuclear power and a further shift towards a more electrified future, and this will cut into the main markets for oil.”

UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell made a similar point at this year’s UN climate summit. “Those who’ve fought to keep the world hooked on fossil fuels,” he argued, “are inadvertently supercharging the global renewables boom…Renewables offer safer, cheaper, cleaner energy that can’t be held captive by narrow shipping straits, or global conflicts.”  

Present Situation

The Energy Transitions Commission (ETC), a global coalition of leaders from across the energy landscape working together to accelerate the transition to a zero-emissions future, has provided some timely advice on the Energy Transition.

”Crisis-driven responses that reinforce fossil fuel dependence risk locking economies into higher costs and long-term vulnerability. Accelerating clean energy deployment can displace the equivalent of all Hormuz flows over the next few years and is the most durable route to economic resilience and energy security.” https://www.energy-transitions.org/jules-kortenhorst-etc-co-chair/

ETC points out that ”the Hormuz closure has disrupted 18.4 million barrels per day of oil — the largest supply shock on record, exceeding the 1973 Arab oil embargo — alongside 20% of global LNG trade and one-third of all globally traded fertilizers. The effects are most acute in emerging and import-dependent economies. Around 84% of crude oil and more than 80% of LNG transiting Hormuz is destined for Asian markets.

Asian benchmark oil prices rose from around $70/bbl to $90-120/bbl in March, while LNG prices rose from around $10-12/MMBtu before the crisis to above $25/MMBtu.”

“Higher oil and gas prices feed directly into transport, food, household energy and industrial costs, hitting lower-income households and small businesses first. The disruption is costing Europe almost €500Million per day.

Damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, with capacity down 17% and repairs estimated at 3–5 years, indicate that disruption may structurally reshape global LNG markets.

ETC estimates the crisis could add $1–2Trillin in additional gross fuel expenditure to the global economy in 2026 alone, if current prices are sustained: not for more energy, but for the same energy at higher cost.” 

Some Home Truths

This is the first major fossil fuel shock in which scalable alternatives exist across the main sources of energy demand, ETC contends.

Spain, with 57% renewable electricity, recorded the EU’s lowest energy price increases post-Hormuz, with prices at $50/MWh.

An example of a country dealing with the current “energy shock” is Singapore, with over 92% imported gas-dependent power generation.  Singapore faced prices above $200/MWh in April 2026.  The country’s gas supply is from two sources:  (1.) Gas piped in from Indonesia and Malaysia. (2.) Imported LNG with the main suppliers including Australia, Qatar, Mozambique and the USA. However, Singapore being located almost directly on the equator,  has an abundance of year around sunshine.  Solar energy has been ignored for many decades by the country’s energy planners.  However, you can be sure that now the Government of Singapore’s absolute top priority is to wean itself, on a super-urgent basis, from its overwhelming dependency on imported gas.

The ETC identifies five actions that reduce exposure to fossil fuel volatility while strengthening energy security and affordability.

• Accelerate renewable electricity deployment. Utility-scale and distributed renewables can displace gas in power systems, particularly when paired with batteries, grids and flexibility.
• Electrify road transport. EV deployment is one of the largest available levers to reduce oil dependence, with potential to cut global oil import spending by more than $600Billion per year.
• Electrify heating and cooking. Heat pumps and electric cooking can reduce reliance on gas and LPG, while improving household affordability.
• Scale green fuels and fertilizers. Cleaner fertilizer production, better nutrient management and low-emissions fuels can reduce exposure in food, shipping and aviation systems.
• Improve energy efficiency across the economy. Building retrofits, smart energy systems, stronger equipment standards, materials efficiency and operational efficiency can reduce exposure immediately and at low cost.

The Case for Africa

The World Resources Council + Energy Transitions Commission published in 2023 a timely brief on that state of Africa’s energy requirements:

“Africa’s role in the global energy transition is unique as the least-electrified continent with the fastest-growing population. Enabling prosperity for this growing population through expanded access to modern forms of energy and industrialization will require at least a tripling of power supply by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency . Thus, the continent’s energy systems, which stand underdeveloped and severely under resourced today, warrant close attention.”

“At approximately 80 GW of installed capacity, sub-Saharan power system capacity is less than one-quarter of India’s. African energy transitions are thus less about moving away from fossil fuels, but rather about how to rapidly expand power generation in reliable, resilient, and affordable ways while remaining climate-compatible and ensuring access for all. Because every African country has a different starting point (Mulugetta et al. 2022), energy road maps for African countries cannot be a single narrative; yet they are often presented as such.”

In their brief four key questions are asked:

Are various renewable sources of energy truly the most cost-effective option for power in Sub-Sahara Africa?

How fast could electrical demand grow across Sub-Sahara Africa given the prospect for income growth in both the short and long term?

What role will oil and gas play in cooking, transportation and industry in the short and long term?

What are emerging export opportunities in green hydrogen, green minerals and fossil fuels in Sub-Sahara Africa?

The longer that the current crisis continues within the Strait of Hormuz the quicker renewable energy will become the dominant fuel to substitute for fossil fuels. Yes fossil fuels will continue to be present but the narrative that it is a dominant fuel is fast losing credibility. This crisis will bring its own timely solution.

 Gerard Kreeft, BA (Calvin University, Grand Rapids, USA) and MA (Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada), Energy Transition Adviser, was founder and owner of EnergyWise.  He has managed and implemented energy conferences, seminars and university master classes in Alaska, Angola, Brazil, Canada, India, Libya, Kazakhstan, Russia and throughout Europe.  Gerard has Dutch and Canadian citizenship and resides in the Netherlands.  He writes on a regular basis for Africa Oil + Gas Report, and contributes to IEEFA(Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis). His book the 10 commandments of the Energy Transition is now on sale at  Bookstorehttps://books.friesenpress.com/store/title/119734000211674846/Gerard-Kreeft-The-10-Commandments-of-the-Energy-Transition

By Gerard Kreeft

Annual General Meetings( AGMs) of publicly  traded companies is perhaps the only occasion that shareholders can meet and confront– face-to-face—company management. Shareholder activism, to ensure that dividends are paid and continue in the future, are the dread and fright of many senior company managements.

Yet if you are a deepwater operator, there is an urgent message: concentrate your deepwater exploration within the Golden Triangle—Latin America(Brazil, Guyana and Suriname), North America(US Gulf of Mexico and Mexico) and Atlantic Margin and East Africa. According to Rystad Energy these three regions, plus the eastern Mediterranean area account for 75 percent of the global deepwater rig demand.

Deepwater exploration, which symbolizes the best-in-class technology and the industry’s innovative character, must now compete with cheaper and more reliable new energy sources, if it is to remain economically relevant. The longer the current Middle East energy crisis continues, the more oil and gas exploration—with deepwater on the front burner—will cease to be an energy source of choice. Instead renewable energy sources, reliable and cheap, will be the fuel of choice.

Go one step further and recall what Andrew Latham, Vice President Energy Research and Dmitrii Rudchenko, Upstream Data Analyst, both of Wood Mackenzie, stated back in 2021: deepwater upstream growth is expected to rise to over 17Million Barrels Oil Equivalent Per Day (17MMMBOEPD) by 2030, up from 10MMMBOEPD in 2021.

Latham stated that almost half of oil and gas reserves being sanctioned for development over the next five years will come from the deepwater. Why? According to Woodmac the out performance is based on reservoir fundamentals. Deepwater reservoirs will produce substantially more oil and gas than shallow or onshore reservoirs.

Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) in deepwater, averages 12MMMBOEPD for oil wells and 43MMMBOEPD for gas wells. Future deepwater oil fields will enjoy twice the average EUR of fields already onstream.

Oil Wells

Brazil, with 36Billion barrels of oil reserves, has an average EUR of 14MMMBOEPD per well. Brazil’s early deepwater developments took place in the post-salt plays of Campos Basin where heavier crudes and drilling  technologies of the 1980s limited average EUR to 8MMBOEPD per well. Recent investments in pre-salt in the Santos Basin is 27MMBOEPD per well.

Angola has 11Billion barrels of oil reserves, 1,000 wells and an average EUR of 10MMBOEPD.

Nigeria has 7Biliion barrels of oil reserves and an average EUR of 16MMBOEPD.

Guyana has 6Biliion barrels of reserves and an average EUR of 24MMBOEPD.

Gas Wells

Gas basins are approximately half the size of oil basins. Woodmac anticipates development of approximately 1,000 deepwater gas wells, of which 700(64%) have already been developed. Average EUR is 43MMBOEPD.

Up to 2009 the average EUR was 31MMBOEPD. Now the average has jumped to 90MMBOEPD based on gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean, Mozambique, and Mauritania and Senegal.

Woodmac anticipates that almost half of the oil and gas reserves being sanctioned for development over the next five years to be in deepwater. Exploration will doubtless add more. The sector’s outperformance stems from its reservoir fundamentals. Deepwater is no place to tackle marginal rock properties or difficult fluids. With few exceptions, the industry has chosen to develop only its best reservoirs. These allow high flow rates and exceptional

estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per well.

“The advantage versus non-deepwater is spectacular. Each deepwater well will produce an order of magnitude more reserves than development wells in shallow water or onshore. EUR in deepwater averages 12MMBOE for oil wells and 43MMBOE for gas wells onstream.”

 Monitoring the progress

Table: Oil Majors Share Price: 2021-April 2026, NYSE

The Dow Jones Industrial Index in the period 2021- 2026 increased 59%: from 31,098 to 49,353. In that same period the oil majors have made huge gains:

ExxonMobil +224%

Shell +122%

ENI +145%

Chevron +103%

TotalEnergies +93%

BP +92%  

While the gains on the stock market may sound impressive there are troubling signs: the overall emphasis is to ensure that there is sufficient cash flow to be able to pay the golden dividends to appease shareholders. Simply scraping together the necessary funding to pay the next dividend instalment does not reflect a strategic strategy for long-term financial planning.

With an enduring Middle East crisis, reliable and cheap energy is fast finding its home in new energy sources; oil and gas, once the hallmark of energy stability and reliability, must fight back to gain its losing legitimacy.

Two simple truths stand central: energy sources should be reliable and cheap. This is fast becoming the mainstay of renewables and what deepwater operators must compete with. Otherwise it is game over!

In our overview of the oil majors key issues such as capital costs, investment decisions and future plans are discussed. Hopefully it will help guide you in better understanding the scope and strategy of the oil majors.

BP legacy to date has left  behind a trail of false-green illusions, management hiccups, a divestment programme, and now a pledge to become(again) an upstream player of merit.  This has left the company swimming in debt, requiring selling off key assets.

BP’s key problem is that over the last 25-years the company has had no long-lasting strategy and has sprung from pillar to post.

Under the watchful eye of Elliot Investment Management, an iron-clad business plan has been put in place. Meg O’Neill, the former head of Woodside Energy has been appointed the new CEO.

By 2027, the company is targeting $14-$18Biliion in net debt.

The company’s value of $125Biliion pales in comparison to the other majors:  ExxonMobil  with a value of $642Biliion and Shell with a market value of $253Biliion.

BP’s divestment programme of $20Biliion involves selling off a 65% portion of  Castrol the lubricant business. By 2027 oil and gas expenditures will be raised to $10Biliion, up from $8.5Biliion in 2025. 

BP has completed the acquisition of the remaining  shares of Lightsource, BP’s renewable business. While fully owning it, BP announced plans to bring in a strategic partner for the solar business later.

Shell has projected a capital budget ranging  between $20–22Biliion per year for the period 2025 to 2028, representing a reduction from the 2023-2024 target range of $22–25Biliion per year. A golden rule is to ensure that dividends continue to be paid.

Yet not all is well for Shell. According to Shell and analysts the company needs an acquisition or exploration breakthrough to make up for an expected production shortage of 350,000-800,000BOEPD by 2035 due to maturing fields unable to meet its output targets.

Luke Parker,  Wood Mackenzie’s vice president of corporate research, expects Shell’s output to fall sharply from 2028 onwards.. “Shell’s biggest challenge, from our perspective, is that it doesn’t have the portfolio to support its strategy to go longer in oil and gas”.

Shell’s ‘reserve life’ – or how long its proven reserves can sustain current output levels – is equivalent to less than 8 years of production as of 2025.

Will Shell’s purchase this April  of ARC in Canada for $16Biliion, with a promise of low carbon intensity shale gas and liquids production in Canada’s Montney basin deliver Shell the needed ‘reserve lífe’ it requires?

Shell’s LNG Hope

Shell has always been quick to point out that its LNG arm would enable the company to withstand economic headwinds. Yet  according to the latest Global LNG Outlook from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA)….”Sluggish demand growth for liquefied natural gas (LNG), combined with a record increase in global export capacity through 2028, will likely thrust markets into an extended period of oversupply”.

“As major importing regions—including Japan, South Korea, and Europe—aim to reduce LNG demand through 2030, global LNG suppliers and traders will increasingly depend on growth in emerging markets to both compensate for falling imports elsewhere and absorb a flood of new supply”…

..”such rapid LNG demand growth in emerging economies is not guaranteed, even in an oversupplied market. Countries in South and Southeast Asia, for example, will face distinct barriers to rising demand, including fiscal and credit challenges, extensive infrastructure delays, and contracting issues, among other obstacles.”

ENI, the Italian-based oil and gas giant is often overlooked in any discussions involving the other oil majors. Yet ENI could be the Joker in the deck providing surprises to an unwitting public and be an upstart which deserves the needed attention. The company operates in the frontier areas seldom mentioned in the daily news media.

Annual production is 1.8MMBOEPD and gross capex is $7Biliion.

A key ENI strategy  is developing a series of joint-ventures to ensure that ENI can achieve maximum leverage for its current oil and gas assets and at the same pursuing new strategies as part of its energy transition plan. An example is  Azule Energy, Angola, a 50-50 joint venture between ENI and BP formed in 2022 to include both companies’upstream assets, LNG and solar business.

Azule Energy is now Angola’s largest independent equity producer of oil and gas, holding 2Biliion barrels equivalent of net resources and growing to about 250,000BOEPD of equity oil and gas production over the next 5 years. It holds stakes in 16 licences (of which six are exploration blocks) and a participation in Angola LNG JV.

The company also participates in the New GasConsortium(NGC), the first non-associated gas project in the country.

Azule Energy is also active in Namibia and has to date made three significant hydrocarbon discoveries.

ENI is developing two offshore  floating LNG projects, a first for Africa—the Coral North + South FLNG projects in Mozambique. In 2024 total LNG production was 5Million tons and by April 2025, 100 cargoes of LNG had been exported.

TOTALEnergies’ capital expenditures for the period 2027-2030 is anticipated to be between $15Biliion-$17Biliion per year. Low carbon energy will receive $4Biliion.

TOTALEnergies has announced that by 2050 the company will be on track to have 50% of its energy mix in renewables + 25% in “new molecules”(green fuels). The remaining 25% would be comprised of oil and gas including LNG.

The company has confirmed that it is on track to deliver 100GW of renewables by 2030. Its Integrated Power division should, in the next 5 years, have a Return on Average Capital Employed (ROACE) of 12%; in 2025 the company’s ROACE was 12.6%, the highest of all the oil majors.

TOTALEnergies is the only oil major creating a second income stream  via its renewables and electrification arm.

Wood Mackenzie has offered this verdict about TOTALEnergies’ strategy:

“TOTALEnergies is powering ahead in integrated power while many rivals scale back. The company has doubled electricity production since 2021, lifted returns on average capital employed to 10% and generated nearly a tenth of group operating cash flow from its fast-growing Integrated Power business.  

It’s clear, consistent strategy – spanning renewables, flexible generation, trading and retail – sets it apart from peers. But driving returns even higher and more than doubling operating cash flow by 2030 will require flawless execution across every element of the value chain.” 

Warren Buffet, America’s most foremost and savvy investor, is a major Chevron investor. Berkshire Hathaway, his investment vehicle, owns 6.5% of Chevron. His foremost ability is owning stocks that have regular and high dividend returns. The Chevron dividend has for the last 39 years increased  incrementally every year. The stake cost the investor $16.7Biliion, netting him a gain of 44%.

Chevron’s 2026 capital budget has a range of $18-$19Biliion: about $10.5Biliion will be designated to the domestic USA market. Upstream is expected to receive approximately $17Biliion. Nearly $6.0Biliion is expected for U.S. shale & tight assets underpinning anticipated U.S. production of more than 2 MMBOEPD.

Global offshore capex is expected to be approximately $7Biliion, primarily supporting growth in Guyana, Eastern Mediterranean and Gulf of Mexico.

A worrying development are the drone attacks on the Novorossiysk-2 marine terminal, operated by the  Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) which  is a crucial oil export facility located in Novorossiysk, Russia, on the Black Sea. The port handles over 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports. Chevron holds a 15% stake in the CPC pipeline consortium and is a major shipper of oil from the Tengiz field through this terminal. Currently Tengiz production is some 950,000 bopd; Chevron has a 50% share in the Tengiz field.

ExxonMobil’s capital budget for 2026 is $27-$29Biliion and for the period 2027-2030 will be $28-$32Biliion.

By 2030 the Permian Basin, Guyana and its LNG investments will produce 3.7MMBOEPD. Total production by 2030 is estimated to be 5.5MMBOEPD.

There is however continued silence on the Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique because of  the security situation in the north of Cabo Delgado province. This  project has been at a standstill since 2021.

Rovuma is owned by a consortium consisting of ExxonMobil, Eni, China National Petroleum Company, Galp, Kogas and ENH.

An embarrassing and painful development for ExxonMobil  is watching how ENI is developing its two offshore  floating LNG projects in Mozambique—the Coral North + South FLNG projects. In 2024 total LNG production was 5 million tons and by April 2025 100 cargoes of LNG had been exported.

ExxonMobil has interests in three producing deepwater blocks (Blocks 15, 17, and 32) covering nearly 3 million gross acres in Angola. These blocks have a gross recoverable resource potential of approximately 9Biliion boepd.  Net production in Angola averaged 100,000 boepd in 2024.

In 2026 Equinor’s capital budget is $13Biliion and is to be reduced to $9Biliion in 2027. The company has a production of 2.1MMBOEPD.

By 2030 Equinor will have 10-12 GW of installed renewable energy capacity.

Equinor has re-set its strategy in the last two years. Originally the company had pledged to spend half of its capex on renewable energy by 2030. Now no mention of how much of  its capital budget will be devoted to oil and gas and to renewables.

Yet the company has revealed how it will be implementing its strategy:

Equinor announced that it had  taken a 10% stake in Ørsted, the floundering offshore wind giant; and Equinor UK and Shell UK have combined their UK offshore oil and gas assets to form  a new joint JV—called Adura.

The company’s twin pillars–natural gas and offshore wind – are at a crossroads. What will the future hold?

Natural gas

Since the Ukraine crisis Norway’s  natural gas supply to Europe has become more critical, providing approximately 30% of the EU’s total imports. Norway exported over 4.24Trillion Cubic Feet (Tcf)  of gas in 2022, and reached a record high of 4.38Tcf in 2024, with 2025 levels remaining high at 4Tcf.

Offshore Wind

Equinor has chosen a series of joint ventures to develop its offshore wind portfolio.

Dogger Bank Wind Farm is being developed in three phases – A, B and C – on an isolated submerged sandbank located off the north-east coast of England. Collectively these will make up the world’s largest offshore wind farm when completed, with an overall generation capacity of 3.6 GW from 277 offshore turbines. This will be enough energy to power six million British homes. First power was delivered to the grid from Dogger Bank A in October 2023, with construction operations still underway. Dogger Bank is being developed by a joint venture partnership between SSE Renewables, Equinor and Vårgrønn

Analysts have estimated low returns—around 3.6% Internal Rate of Return (IRR) on such projects—and the company is re-adjusting its strategy. Equinor suffered a $955Million impairment charge on its US Empire project in 2025.

Equinor acknowledges that its offshore wind portfolio is experiencing teething problems but remains optimistic:

“The offshore wind industry has experienced a downcycle in recent years amid record high inflation and supply chain cost bottlenecks, which have impacted the profitability of many projects. Despite this it remains a promising option for clean electricity production growth in many countries. In preparation for an industry rebound we have focused our portfolio to a smaller number of core countries, scaling down our activities in some early phase offshore wind markets. Through this prioritization we can concentrate investment into the projects where we see a clear path to profitable growth. We continue to believe in the long-term profitability of offshore wind “…:

A final footnote: Equinor is a non-operating partner in three offshore producing blocks in the Lower Congo Basin, on the Angolan continental shelf, with an equity production of around 110,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (2024).

Some Final Takeaways

The oil majors are presenting shareholders a plurality of scenarios from which a number of conclusions can be drawn:

BP requires a period of rest and tranquility in order that the new management team can get its house in order.

ENI with its pioneering and innovative spirit will continue to spur the imagination of Africans—its FLNG production in Mozambique and strategic joint-venture with Azule Energy are examples.

Chevron is again, for the 39^th year in succession, increasing its dividend. Most of its capital spending is for the domestic market. A threat are the drone attacks on the Novorossiysk-2 marine terminal from which Tengiz oil is shipped. Tengiz production is 950,000BPD and Chevron has a 50% stake in this project.

TOTALEnergies’ twin-engine growth model—deepwater and renewables—is unique among the oil majors, providing the company with a ready-made alternative scenario if the hydrocarbon house comes to an early demise. 

ExxonMobil is a firm believer in its path forward making no apologies for its hard push for hydrocarbons, especially in a new frontier such as Guyana. There is no need for a Plan B.

Equinor are exercising caution knowing that they are symbolically seen as Europe’s reliable gas tank; and weighing their options for moving ahead with offshore wind.

Gerard Kreeft, BA (Calvin University, Grand Rapids, USA) and MA (Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada), Energy Transition Adviser, was founder and owner of EnergyWise.  He has managed and implemented energy conferences, seminars and university master classes in Alaska, Angola, Brazil, Canada, India, Libya, Kazakhstan, Russia and throughout Europe.  Kreeft has Dutch and Canadian citizenship and resides in the Netherlands.  He writes on a regular basis for Africa Oil + Gas Report, and guest contributor to IEEFA(Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis). His book ‘The 10 Commandments of the Energy Transition ‘is on sale at https://books.friesenpress.com/store/title/119734000211674846/Gerard-Kreeft-The-10-Commandments of the Energy Transition.

South African electricity trader, Etana Energy (Pty) Limited, has signed a significant Power Purchase Agreement with the mining group, Sibanye-Stillwater, for supply of 220MW of solar and wind energy.

Under the 10-year agreement, Etana will deliver 220MW of renewable energy per year to Sibanye-Stillwater’s mining operations, commencing in late 2027. This energy will be provided by wheeling electricity from Etana’s solar and wind generation portfolio and transmitting this through South Africa’s national grid. The Agreement has been structured to compliment and integrate directly into Sibanye-Stillwater’s existing and future power requirements, helping to significantly reduce both its electricity costs and carbon emissions.

Sibanye-Stillwater is a multinational mining and metals processing group and one of the largest gold and platinum group metals producers in South Africa.

Etana is a relatively new South African electricity trading platform in which Chariot Generation and Trading (Pty) Limited (a subsidiary of the London listed Chariot Ltd.,  holds an economic interest of 34%, alongside H1 Holdings a black-owned and managed company (36%), Norfund  (20%) and Standard Bank(10%).