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Egypt Prepares Tender for Last Phase of Africa’s Largest Wind Power Project

Egypt’s New and Renewable Energy Authority is preparing to issue a tender for Build, Operate and Maintain the 120 MW capacity Jabal Al-Zeit 3 ​​wind power plant.

It is the third of the three wind power plants in the Jabal al-Zeit wind station, whose total planned capacity is stated to be 580MW, with a production rate of 2MW per turbine. The station is located on a 100-acre site in District 3 of Jabal el-Zeit, along the western side of the coastal road of Hurghada, in Egypt’s Red Sea Governorate.

The first project, Jabal Al-Zeit 1, with 250MW capacity, was commissioned in February 2020; it includes 120 turbines. The second, Jabal Al-Zeit 2, whose construction was only just completed, has 110 turbines. Contract for the operation and maintenance of that second wind farm has gone to Siemens Gamesa.

The third, while the third Jabal Al-Zeit 3 ​​wind power plant will work with 60 turbines and has 120MW capacity.

Three companies, including Siemens Gamesa, Vestas and Volatalia, have informally expressed interest to bid. But they have to wait for the tender to be launched in the second quarter of 2021.

The government’s plan is that, after construction and inauguration, the period of operation and maintenance of the plant will be between five and seven years, and the period can be extended for another year in agreement with the New and Renewable Energy Authority.

The New and Renewable Energy Authority had announced its intention to establish a subsidiary company to maintain and operate wind projects, but it changed the course after studying its feasibility.

The agency decided, instead, to launch tenders to select companies to undertake the operation and maintenance for a specific period, or for an investor to establish the company himself, owning it in full, and undertaking the maintenance of the authority’s stations through a contract between the two parties for a period of 5 to 10 years, provided that the investor gets the fees for operating and maintaining the stations. The Renewable Energy Authority owns two wind stations, the first in Zafarana with a capacity of 550MW, which includes about 700 turbines of different capacities, the second in Jabal Al-Zeit 1 with a capacity of 580MW.

 


New York City Pension Funds Pull Out of Fossil Fuel Holdings

New York City’s largest pension funds have voted to initiate full fossil fuel divestment, selling off an estimated $4Billion of holdings in fossil fuel corporations, such as ExxonMobil.

The city’s announcement fulfills its commitment to divest from fossil fuels.

NYC’s pension funds, valued at $239Billion, are the largest municipal pension funds to divest globally.

The city’s divestment commitment, made in 2018, inspired further action worldwide. It was followed by commitments from many other large funds, including the City of London, the Norwegian Sovereign Fund, and the New York State Common Retirement Fund. Today’s announcement confirms the City’s commitment to divest from fossil fuels within five years.

Divestment has exploded over the past decade from a symbolic action by small college endowments into a worldwide movement that has led to over $14Trillion worth of investment funds divesting or committing to divest from the oil, gas or coal industries.

In order to fulfill the Paris climate agreement’s goals of staving off catastrophic climate change, all major finance of fossil fuels and deforestation must end by 2030.


Morocco’s Tender for 400MW Solar Project Ends January 31

Submissions for Morocco’s tender for the construction of the first phase of the Noor PV II complex will wrap up on January 31, 2021.

Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy (MASEN) called for expressions of interest (EOIs)  for the 400MW project in 2020.

Noor PV II Solar complex involves six locations: Sidi Bennour (48MW), Kelaa sraghna (48MW), Taroudant (36MW), Bejaad (48MW), El Hajeb (36MW) and Ain Beni Mathar (184MW). The given capacity is in direct current (DC).

Winning bidders will be announced in the second quarter. The contracts are due to be signed in the third or fourth quarter of 2021.

Morocco’s Noor solar programme was introduced back in 2009 with the goal of adding at least 2,000MW of solar PV across the country, supporting the Kingdom’s target of growing the proportion of renewables in its installed power mix to 52% by 2030.

Construction of the first phase of the project – Noor I – began in 2013, and reached completion in 2016. On 4th February 2016, King Mohammed VI chaired the commissioning ceremony at the first plant, and officially launched the construction of phase II and III of the solar complex.

While Noor I and Noor II use concentrated solar power (CSP) technology to generate electricity with the help of 12-metre-tall mobile parabolic mirrors, Noor III will introduce a technological variation of CSP technology, by using a solar tower. The fourth phase will use photovoltaic technology.


Cameroon’s 25MW Solar Plants to Be Commissioned in Early 2022

The 10MW Guider and 15MW Maroua solar power plants, about to commence construction, will cost $31Million (XAF17Billion), and should be up and running before mid-2022. Guidder is located in Cameroon‘s North Province, close to the border with Chad, whereas Maroua is the capital of the country’s Far North Region.

The power utility ENEO (Energy of Cameroon), has received guarantees from the country’s Investment Promotion Agency (API), that the construction project will benefit from the tax and customs exemptions provided by the 2013 private investments incentives law (revised in 2017).  The related agreement was signed on January 20, 2021, in Yaoundé,

MGSC (a joint venture formed by Norwegian company Scatec, Israeli-American group Izuba Energy and Sphinx Energy, run by a Cameroonian economic operator based in the USA) was chosen by ENEO, in 2018, to develop the project.

Scatec, the leader of the consortium, has one of the largest solar energy capacities in Africa (400 MW in Egypt, over 300 MW in South Africa, 40MW in Mozambique, 300 MW under construction in Tunisia …).

The 25MW of solar energy expected from the Guider and Maroua plants will be sold to ENEO, according to the contract binding the involved parties. The power output should help diversify Cameroon’s energy mix, which is still largely dominated by thermal and hydroelectric energy. It should also reduce energy production cost.

 

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ENEL Connects New 144MW Wind Farm to S. A. National Grid

Italian power provider ENEL, has connected a wind farm in South Africa’s Eastern Cape to the country’s national grid.

The 144MW Nxuba wind farm was completed last November and will be supported by a 20-year power supply agreement with Eskom, the South African energy utility, as part of the South African government’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) tender.

ENEL operates in South Africa as ENEL Green Power RSA (EGP RSA) and has a total of eight operational projects in the country, with installed capacity of 650MW.

South Africa leads the continent in renewable energy capacity, with close to 4,000MW of Wind and Solar power connected to the national grid since 2014.

 

 


Ghana Installs a Floating Solar Power Plant in a Hydroelectric Dam

Ghanaian authorities have inaugurated a floating solar power plant built in the reservoir of the hydroelectric dam in Bui, in north-eastern Ghana. The 5 MW plant is the first phase of a project to support the hydropower installation with a 250 MW solar system.

The second phase of the solar plant is under construction.

The Bui Hydroelectric dam has the capacity to produce 400MW of electricity. When the solar hybridization is completed, it will be able to output 650MW.

The Bui Power Authority (BPA) is the body responsible for managing this facility.

In times of drought, the solar power plant should complement the production of the dam, which drops as the flow of the Volta Noire river drops. According to Afare Apeadu Donkor, the chairman of the board of directors (PCA) of BPA, construction work on the second phase of the project, in addition to the new floating solar power plant, is “progressing”.

 


The Three – Service Sector- Musketeers of the Energy Transition: The Emerging Energy Value Chain

By Gerard Kreeft

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All- For-One; One-For-All

Musketeer 1 Oilfield Services

Musketeer 2 New Energy Service Companies

Musketeer 3 Energy Service Companies Africa

There is growing evidence of a new convergence between Musketeer 1 Oilfield Services  and Musketeer 2 New Energy Service Companies. 

Perhaps not so much convergence but cross-overs and falling by the wayside of others and in the process creating new alliances.

Little attention has been paid to Musketeer 3- Energy  Service Companies Africa- perhaps viewed as the junior musketeer, but nonetheless playing a significant role.

Their- All- For-One; One-For-All requires  further explanation.

Peak Oil and What to Anticipate From the Majors

Rystad Energy is a preminent independent energy research and business intelligence company, headquartered in Oslo, Norway.

The COVID-19 pandemic, according to the company, has accelerated the global peak demand for oil to 2028, instead of 2030 and cut peak oil demand to 102Million Barrels Per Day. This corresponds with BP’s peak oil analysis of 2025 and demand of 100MMBOPD.

Nonetheless, Rystad  calculated that oil demand,  in 2020, declined to 89.3MMBOPD, compared with 99.6MMBOPD in 2019. This is now termed “COVID-19 induced demand destruction”.  It is only in 2023 that demand will recover to pre-Covid-19 levels and jump back to 100.1MMBOPD.

There is also little evidence from the oil and gas majors to indicate that there will be a quick recovery. In 2021 the sector’s growth in Africa will be halting and slow:

ExxonMobil: Deepwater Offshore Guyana,  Rovuma LNG Mozambique are the company’s key challenges. Expect little else and no plans on renewables.

Chevron: Only $1.5Billion dedicated to possibly Angola, Equitorial Guinea and Nigeria. Attention is focused on Tengiz, Kazakhstan which is receiving 75% of Chevron’s budget outside the USA. Only fossil-based investments.

Equinor: Attention is largely  being devoted to expanding its offshore windpark capacity, all outside Africa.

ENI: With its large African footprint in Angola, Nigeria and Egypt the company is in prime position to expand its African operations. Green energy plans are being made.

Shell: reducing its oil and gas assets to 9 key hubs which includes Nigeria. Green shoots on the horizon.

TOTAL: its Brulpadda and Liuperd (Leopard) prospects in South Africa, together with its Mozambique LNG project will be the focal points in 2021. Little room for further plans. Green plans play a strategic role.

BP: intends to reduce its oil production by 40% .How will this affect the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim  development in Mauritania and Senegal, its Algerian, Angolan and  Egyptian assets? The first green plans are being unveiled.

Musketeer 1 : Oilfield Services

Global demand for oilfield services (OFS), measured in the total value of exploration and production (E&P) company spending, has in 2020 dropped a massive 25% as a result of the Covid-19 caused oil demand destruction, According to Rystad.

Spending in 2020 is at year’s end expected  to be $481Billion and take the first step to recovery will take place in 2021.

“The recovery will accelerate further in 2022 and 2023, with OFS spending by E&Ps reaching some $552Billion and $620Billion, respectively. Despite the boost, purchases will not return to the pre-COVID-19 levels of $639Billion achieved in 2019.”

 

Audun Martinsen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Energy Research, argues that the comeback will not be visible across all OFS segments. Well services and the pressure pumping market will be the first to see a boost, while other markets will need to get further depressed before recovering.

“Despite the recovery in oil prices, it will take many quarters before all segments of the supply chain see their revenues deliver consistent growth. In case of an upturn, operators would prefer flexible budget items with production increments and high-return investments with short pay-back times. Therefore, we expect well service segments to be the first to recover, while long-lead segments will pick up much later.“

  • Maintenance and operations: is poised for consecutive yearly rises in the next three years after slumping to $167Billion this year from $202Billion in 2019.
  • Well services and commodities: is set for a similar recovery, but only after slumping to $152Billion in 2020 from $231Billion in 2019 – the biggest decline among segments in absolute numbers.
  • Drilling contractors: falling to $46Billion in 2020 from $62Billion in 2019, and then rising to $57Billion in 2023.
  • Subsea segment: will fall from $25Billion in 2019 to $22Billion in 2021 – before starting to rebound to $24Billion in 2022 and to $29Billion in 2023.
  • EPCI: fell to $81Billion in 2020 from $105Billion in 2019, sliding further to $74Billion in 2021, before rising back to $81Billion in 2022 and growing to $106Billion a year later.
  • Seismic: declined to $12Billion in 2020 from $15Billion in 2019, dropping to $10Billion in 2021, before rebounding to $11Billion in 2022 and to $13Billion a year later.

The Players- BakerHughes, Halliburton and Schlumberger

Baker Hughes, Halliburton and Schlumberger, the traditional giants of the service providers, have experienced a long trek through the wilderness. Is relief on the way? A mixed bag.

Their stock prices have tanked: in December 2016 Baker Hughes’s share price was $65, now December 2020, it was $21; Schlumberger in December 2016 was $85, December 2020 it had dropped to $21; Halliburton in December 2016 was $55; in  December 2020 it was $19.

81,000 jobs have been lost since November 2019, to go by the report of the Petroleum Equipment and Services Association  (PESA).  In a recent forum PESA President Leslie Beyer stated: “The majors are making carbon reduction and setting net zero goals. Then they’re turning to their OFS sector partners and saying, ‘How are you going to help us get there?’”.  How indeed!

The strategies of both Halliburton and Schlumberger are defensive and show little reason for optimism:

Halliburton on its website talks about further digalization of its services, lower capital intensity and being committed to provide technologies that reduce emissions/environmental footprint.

Olivier Le Peuch, Schlumberger’s CEO, recently announced a major strategic restructuring creating four new divisions- Digital & Integration, Production Systems, Well Construction, Reservoir Performance.

Within the confines of the E&P bubble both major service companies continue on with what they anticipate what the IOCs (International Oil Companies) are dictating: belt tightening, a reduced head count, with the hope for a better tomorrow. Simply re-shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic.

The one exception is Baker Hughes who has recently unveiled a forward looking strategy focused on CCS (Carbon Capture Storage), Hydrogen, and Energy Storage. Key themes for the Energy Transition.

The Drillers

Hans Hagelberg, Bassoe Offshore, has estimated that in the last 12 months the offshore rig fleet has lost almost 42%, or $30Billion of its total value. A large portion of the global fleet is now cold stacked. Of the 103 cold stacked, 94 have been stacked for 12 months or longer.

West Africa has been one of the hardest hit areas in 2020, according to IHS Markit: the region saw 11 contract cancellations from March to July 2020, the most of any area. Most of those cancellations were associated with jackups.

Jackup utilization in West Africa fell from 71% in September 2019 to 29% in September 2020, while drillship utilization fell from 48% to an abysmal 19% in the same time frame, according to Bassoe.

Dayrates for drillships in West Africa are currently between $150,000 and $200,000 per day, while jackups currently sit between $70,000 and $90,000. Looking to 2021, Teresa Wilkie, Offshore Rig Market Analyst, Bassoe,  rig utilization in West Africa is likely to stay flat, unless there is a marked increase in oil demand. With rig oversupply set to continue in the region, she expects dayrates to remain at the same level in 2021; further reductions are unlikely as the current rates are around operating cost level.

Marine Contractors- Two  key players- TechnipFMC & Heerema

Marine contractors have not been sitting idle. They are demonstrating adaptation and innovation.

The 2017 merger of Technip and FMC featured distinct market segments: subsea, onshore and offshore and surface projects. Now Technip Energies- entailing LNG, sustainable chemistry and decarbonization- is being spun off, creating new innovative options.

Arnaud Pieton, President and CEO of Technip Energies, says that the company is well placed to produce green hydrogen, given  that some  270 plants worldwide have their origin with TechnipFMC.  A strategic alliance with McPhy, a builder of electrolyzers, is expected to help enhance the production of green hydrogen. 

Heerema, which had its own enormous fabrication yard in Angola,  recently announced that it shut down operations citing poor  market conditions and sustained low oil price.  Instead the company is investing in the Offshore Wind Sector.

Heerema Marine Contractors recently signed a contract  to support the construction of the Changhua Windfarm Phase 1 project, Offshore Taiwan. Heerema will take on the installation of 21 jacket foundations (4 legged) for the Changhua project.

Musketeer 2 New Energy Service Companies

Siemens Energy

Siemens Energy has operations in 90 countries offering a full project cycle of services: generation, transmission and storage from conventional to renewable energy. Two examples:

  • Service center and a training academy in Egypt. The service center is the first of its kind in the region, combining a repair center, a tooling center and a spare-parts warehouse under one roof; and
  • Siemens Energy will supply six SGT-800 industrial gas turbines to the Mozambique LNG Project that will be used for low-emissions onsite power generation.

Cummins

Cummins operates in 51 countries in Africa and market leader in fuel cell and hydrogen production technologies. Cummins began developing its fuel cell capabilities more than 20 years ago.

In 2019 Cummins purchased Hydrogenics, a leader in hydrogen technology. This accelerated Cummins’ ability to further innovate and scale hydrogen fuel cell technologies across a range of commercial markets.

Two examples of Cummins’s presence in Africa:

  • Cummins Angola operations, which is a joint venture partnership with Angolan ProjectNet. Cummins Angola currently occupies 1,000-square meters of office and parts outlet space, as well as 1,750-square meters of rehousing.  Cummins is working closely with the Angolan government to maximize the Private Public Partnership Framework to invest in the energy sector.
  • Cummins has supplied a power solution based around four of its 630 kVA generator sets to Standard Chartered Bank in Ghana. The system will provide the bank’s head office in Accra with standby power whenever interruptions to the grid supply require it.

ITM Power

ITM Power Plc designs and manufactures products which generate hydrogen gas, based on Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) technology. This technology only uses electricity (renewable) and tap water to generate hydrogen gas on-site and can be scaled  up to 100MW+ in size.

Two examples:

  • The REFHYNE project to be installed and operated at the world’s largest hydrogen electrolyser at the Shell Rhineland Refinery in Wesseling, Germany.The PEM electrolyser, built by ITM Power, will be the largest of its kind to be deployed on a large industrial scale.
  • HyDeploy the £6.8Million project, funded by Ofgem and led by Cadent and Northern Gas Networks, UK, is an energy trial to establish the potential for blending up to 20% hydrogen into the normal gas supply to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. HyDeploy will run a year-long live trial of blended gas on part of the University of Keele gas network to determine the level of hydrogen which could be used by gas consumers safely and with no changes to their behaviour or existing domestic appliances. ITM Power is supplying the electrolyser system.

Musketeer 3: Energy Service Companies Africa

Musketeer 3 has huge challenges if Africa is to be lit up by 2025. The African Development Bank envisages:

  • 160 GW of new capacity for On-grid generation;
  • 130Million new connections for On-grid transmission and grid connections;
  • 75Million connections for Off-grid generation, an increase 29 times more than what Africa generates today;
  • Access to clean cooking energy for 130Million households.

There is a strong need to enhance the capability of Musketeer 3- Energy Service Companies Africa- to build coalitions across the sector and the region,  including the oil and gas and the renewable sector.

Some examples

  • Clean Energy Corridor which aims to support integration of cost-effective renewable power options to national systems, promote its cross-border trade and support creation of regional markets for renewable energy. The Clean Energy Corridor initiative has two African components:   (1.) African  Clean Energy Corridor(ACEC) for the member countries of Eastern and Southern African power pools.  (2.) West African Clean Energy Corridor(WACEC) within the Economic Community of West African States.
  • Partners should also include National Governments and their National Power Companies, including companies from Asia, Europe, the Americas, and the Middle East.
  • Finally this should include the oil and gas sector accustomed to carrying out large -scale projects. Providing them an opportunity to participate and be a partner in renewable energy.

The increased speed of the Energy Transition is not necessarily good news for Africa. The greening of Europe by the  majors could  mean reducing oil and  gas activities in Africa.

Why? Simply because the oil and gas majors are choosing  low carbon prospects and natural gas projects on a massive scale  leaving many potential prospects in doubt. Other smaller oil and gas projects will not be treated so kindly.

How will oil and gas prospects in Africa be judged? Do the various governments have the management skills to properly assess their energy scenarios?

Do they have the technical knowledge, capability and expertise to manage and implement oil and gas projects?

Then there is the matter of developing national service companies which have the technical capacity and knowledge to implement projects.

Conclusions

  1. Musketeer 1- Oilfield Services is in the sunset of his youth. Oilfield Services will continue but in a diminished marketplace. With the majors cutting back their oil and gas investments there is little room for optimism. Halliburton and Schlumberger must seriously re-examine their energy scenarios. Baker Hughes is showing investors that they have a Plan B.  Also the marine contractors- both TechnipFMC and Heerema- are making bold energy transition moves.
  2. Musketeer 2- New Energy Service Companies are defining the energy transition. Siemens Energy, Cummins and ITM Power are examples of new companies delivering energy systems for a renewable world.
  3. Musketeer 3- Energy Service Companies Africa could well become an alliance of national oil and gas companies, power companies and service companies in order to meet the requirements of the energy transition. They could well receive assistance from Musketeer 2-New Energy Service Companies.

Gerard Kreeft, BA (Calvin University, Grand Rapids, USA) and MA (Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada), Energy Transition Adviser, was founder and owner of EnergyWise.  He has managed and implemented energy conferences, seminars and university master classes in Alaska, Angola, Brazil, Canada, India, Libya, Kazakhstan, Russia and throughout Europe.  Kreeft has Dutch and Canadian citizenship and resides in the Netherlands.  He writes on a regular basis for Africa Oil+ Gas Report.

 

 


Africa’s Electricity Unlikely to Go Green This Decade

PARTNER CONTENT

New research from the University of Oxford predicts that total electricity generation across the African continent will double by 2030, with fossil fuels continuing to dominate the energy mix – posing potential risk to global climate change commitments.

The study, published by Nature Energy, uses a state-of-the art machine-learning technique to analyse the pipeline of more than 2,500 currently-planned power plants and their chances of being successfully commissioned. It shows the share of non-hydro renewables in African electricity generation is likely to remain below 10% in 2030, although this varies by region.

“Africa’s electricity demand is set to increase significantly as the continent strives to industrialise and improve the wellbeing of its people, which offers an opportunity to power this economic development through renewables” says Galina Alova, study lead author and researcher at the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment

“There is a prominent narrative in the energy planning community that the continent will be able to take advantage of its vast renewable energy resources and rapidly decreasing clean technology prices to leapfrog to renewables by 2030 – but our analysis shows that overall, it is not currently positioned to do so.”

The study predicts that in 2030, fossil fuels will account for two-thirds of all generated electricity across Africa. While an additional 18% of generation is set to come from hydro-energy projects. These have their own challenges, such as being vulnerable to an increasing number of droughts caused by climate change.

The research also highlights regional differences in the pace of the transition to renewables, with southern Africa leading the way. South Africa alone is forecast to add almost 40% of Africa’s total predicted new solar capacity by 2030.

“Namibia is committed to generate 70% of its electricity needs from renewable sources, including all the major alternative sources such as hydropower, wind and solar generation, by 2030, as specified in the National Energy Policy and in Intended Nationally Determined Contributions under Paris Climate Change Accord,’ says Calle Schlettwein, Namibia Minister of Water (former Minister of Finance and Minister of Industrialisation). “We welcome this study and believe that it will support the refinement of strategies for increasing generation capacity from renewable sources in Africa and facilitate both successful and more effective public and private sector investments in the renewable energy sector.”

“The more data-driven and advanced analytics-based research is available for understanding the risks associated with power generation projects, the better”, Mr. Schlettwein argues. “Some of the risks that could be useful to explore in the future are the uncertainties in hydrological conditions and wind regimes linked to climate change, and economic downturns such as that caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.”

The study suggests that a decisive move towards renewable energy in Africa would require a significant shock to the current system. This includes large-scale cancellation of fossil fuel plants currently being planned. The study also identifies ways in which planned renewable energy projects can be designed to improve their success chances – for example, smaller size, fitting ownership structure, and availability of development finance.

“The development community and African decision makers need to act quickly if the continent wants to avoid being locked into a carbon-intense energy future’ says Philipp Trotter, study author and researcher at the Smith School. ‘Immediate re-directions of development finance from fossil fuels to renewables are an important lever to increase experience with solar and wind energy projects across the continent in the short term, creating critical learning curve effects.”

 

 

 


IFC Bolsters South Africa’s Renewable Energy Credentials

By Ahmed Gafar

The International Finance Corporation (IFC), will provide up to $200Million to finance renewable energy projects in South Africa.

Nedbank, the country’s third largest lender, is the vehicle through which the facility will run.

It is essential that we seize this opportunity to rethink the structure of our economies, to build a fairer, more resilient and low-carbon future,” declares Adamou Labara, IFC Country Director for South Africa.

Between 2011 and 2015, South Africa was the powerhouse of renewable energy in Africa and one of the most progressive supporters of green energy developments in the developing world

But all that came to an abrupt end, when Eskom, the country’s powerful utility, declared that renewables would escalate the cost of electricity in South Africa. Bid rounds for renewable energy projects were halted in the aftermath of that declaration.

Nedbank’s loan agreement with IFC is part of the signals that South Africa, which now has over 3,000MW of installed solar and wind power generating plants, is back in the renewable energy business.

“The loan agreement is part of the IFC’s efforts to develop South Africa’s climate finance market and support the South African government’s plan to move to a low-carbon economy”, IFC says in a release. “South Africa has set a target of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2025 and diversifying its power generation to reduce its reliance on coal by 2050”.

Nedbank declares its “commitment to engage in alternative climate finance mechanisms that will further develop markets and support projects that create positive impacts aligned with UN sustainable development goals,

Describing itself as “the first carbon neutral bank on the African continent”, Nedbank says it became, in 2019 “the first commercial bank in South Africa to launch a green bond on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange”.


Africa’s renewable energy capacity is set for consecutive years of growth, exceeding 50,000MW (50 GW) in 2025

Africa’s installed capacity of renewable energy, which stood at 12,600MW (12.6GW) in 2019, is set for consecutive years of growth, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. The continent’s capacity is forecast to reach 16,800MW (16.8 GW) in 2020, add another 5,500MW (5.5 GW) in 2021, and further climb to 51.2 GW in 2025, led by growth in solar and wind projects in Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco and Ethiopia.

At present, South Africa leads the continent in terms of installed renewable energy capacity with 3.5 GW of wind, 2.4 GW of utility solar, and a solar-dominant 1 GW pipeline of projects in development. Egypt and Morocco are in second and third place in terms of solar capacity with 1.6 GW and 0.8 GW, respectively.

Nearly 40 out of 50 African countries have installed – or plan to install – wind or solar projects. And although the learning curve may be steep for first-time market entrants with sizable development pipelines, inexperienced players will be able to leverage the lessons learned in Egypt, South Africa and Morocco and implement this knowledge into development plans.

Algeria will see the most renewable growth in Africa towards 2025, increasing capacity from just 500 megawatt (MW) in 2020 to almost 2.9 GW in 2025. The increase will come primarily from one mega-project, the 4 GW Tafouk 1 Mega Solar Project, which will be developed in five phases of 800 MW capacity each, to be tendered between 2020 and 2024. Rystad Energy expects three of the tendered projects with 2.4 GW of capacity will be commissioned by 2025.

Tunisia will also see formidable growth, skyrocketing from 350 MW of renewable capacity in 2020 to 4.5 GW in 2025. The additions will come from larger solar plants such as the 2 GW TuNur Mega Project, which is currently in the early stages of development and is expected to come on line by 2025.

Learn more in Rystad Energy’s RenewableCube.

In terms of speed, Egypt has been one of the quickest African nations to install solar and wind since 2017, and currently has approximately 3 GW of installed capacity. The country has a massive 9.2 GW development pipeline – which mostly consists of wind projects – putting Egypt on track to overtake South Africa in 2025 and become the green powerhouse of Africa.

Growth will come from large projects such as the 2 GW Gulf of Suez Red Sea Wind Project, which will be located in the governorate of the Red Sea. Of the capacity to be installed, 500 MW will be developed by German giant Siemens Gamesa and 1,500 MW remains to be awarded. Four out of the top 10 projects to be developed in Africa in the next five years will be in Egypt, underscoring the Egyptian government’s commitment to its renewable goals.

Morocco follows Egypt in terms of the quick pace of installations with 2.5 GW of installed capacity, dominated by 1.7 GW of wind power. Rystad Energy expects solar will drive the growth there, with a handful of large projects already in the works such as the 1 GW Noor Midelt Hybrid (CSP + Solar PV), the 400 MW Noor PV II, and the 120 MW Noor Tafilalet.

Ethiopia’s capacity numbers will also take a huge leap: The county currently has only 11 MW of installed solar capacity and close to 450 MW of installed wind, but is expected to have 3 GW of renewable capacity on line by 2025. The Tigray Hybrid Project will drive this increase and is expected to contribute at least 500 MW of solar capacity by 2025, assuming a resolution to the current ongoing conflict by then

The cost of renewables is at an all-time low now, and as larger markets such as China, India and Europe are on track to reach installation targets, wind and solar components will become ever cheaper and more easily accessed, creating a conducive environment for investment also in Africa.

“Development on the continent has historically been slow due to political instability, lagging policy and infrastructure, and poor procurement. However, as electricity demand increases, many African nations are turning to renewable solutions to meet energy targets, with solar overtaking wind in the next five years as the renewable technology of choice,“ says Gaurav Metkar, analyst at Rystad Energy.

For more analysis, insights and reports, clients and non-clients can apply for access to Rystad Energy’s Free Solutions and get a taste of our data and analytics universe.

 

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