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By Gerard Kreeft

If you are confused about the future outcome of the scope and direction of Europe’s natural gas policies then Ihope this article will bring you some clarity and understanding. Not only about Europe’s energy politics but also the implications for Asia and Africa.

Firstly, the EU has, since the invasion by Russia  of the Ukraine, virtually stopped  all Russian gas imports; importantly too is that Norway and the USA have very quickly moved to fill this vacuum.

Secondly, future LNG prices are becoming an incentive—certainly in the case of South Korea, Japan and other Asian markets—to turn to renewables as an alternative economical energy source.

Finally, developing African LNG projects must come to terms what this will mean for their projects. 

The Present Situation

In January 2026, the European Council adopted a regulation to prohibit both LNG and pipeline gas imports from Russia starting from 18 March 2026, with transition periods for existing contracts. By the end of 2027, all Russian gas imports will be prohibited. 

Russia’s share of EU imports of pipeline gas dropped from around 40% in 2021 to around 6% in 2025. For pipeline gas and LNG combined, Russia accounted for around 12% of total EU gas imports in 2025.  

Gas imports from Russia declined from over 5.3Trillion cubic feet(Tcf) in 2021 to 1.3Tcf in 2025. This was mainly compensated for by increasing imports from the USA and Norway: the USA increased from 667Billion cubic feet in 2021 to 2.6Tcf in 2025; and imports from Norway grew from 2.8Tcf in 2021 to 3.15Tcf in 2025.

The EU’s demand for natural gas declined by over 19% between 2021 and 2024.  

Natural Gas Price Outlook

Morgan Stanley has significantly raised its European natural gas (TTF) price forecasts due to expected LNG supply constraints, with Q2 2026 prices expected to average $23 per Million British Thermal Units (MMBtu): A potential 8Million-ton supply reduction from Qatar could create a market deficit, with extreme scenarios potentially pushing up prices. For example:

• Q2 2026: Raised to $23/MMBtu from a previous $16/MMBtu forecast.
• Q3 2026: Raised to $19/MMBtu from $10/MMBtu.
• Q4 2026: Raised to $12/MMBtu from $9/MMBtu.

As of early April 2026, European gas storage levels have decreased following a relatively cold winter, with the EU average dropping towards 29-30% full, though this remains above 2021 averages.

• Storage Trends: The winter withdrawal season has ended, with inventories projected to end winter at around 22% in some areas, which is lower than historical norms.
• Refilling Challenges: Low levels are fueling concerns about the upcoming summer restocking season, which will require significant LNG imports.
• Outlook: Despite the low levels, European storage remains functional, with plans to rebuild stocks ahead of winter.

No doubt storage operators are awaiting more market clarity: whether or not storage prices will fall, or continue to rise.  

LNG/Renewables—the case of Asia 

South Korea

According to a recent  Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis(IEEFA) report ”South Korea has announced an accelerated roadmap targeting 100 gigawatts (GW) of renewables by 2030, supported by village-scale solar, heat conversion, renewables-supplied industrial complexes, and policy reforms to reduce costs and develop a domestic green technology industry.”

“The marginal cost of generating electricity from liquefied natural gas (LNG) has doubled in South Korea. Fuel costs alone — excluding fixed generation, transmission, distribution, and other charges — now roughly match the full retail electricity tariffs charged by Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) to customers.”

“Although solar and wind energy costs in South Korea are currently 80%–250% higher than global averages, the IEEFA estimates that the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar and onshore wind can already compete with — and in many cases undercut — the marginal fuel costs of LNG-fired power generation.”

Japan

Japan’s anti-LNG stance is proving to be important.

Not it’s need for importing LNG but because of its buying and re-selling its imported LNG to other Asian countries. In essence this infra-trading is creating a new sub-market.

The over-supply of Japanese LNG will in the coming days be a buffer for the effective  loss of some 20% of global LNG: lost because of  closure of the Strait of Hormuz and QatarEnergy’s declaration of force majeure of LNG shipments from Ras Laffan. 

Sam Reynolds, IEEFA’s Research Lead LNG/Gas Asia, declares that ”40% of all LNG volumes handled by Japanese companies are sold elsewhere, up from just 16% in FY2018.

Japan’s resales of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to foreign markets continued to reach new highs in 2024, up nearly 15% compared to the previous year.”

 “The country’s domestic consumption of LNG marginally increased but has fallen by nearly 20% since 2018, according to the latest LNG handling survey of 30 companies conducted by the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC).”

“In 2024, Japanese LNG resales were approximately 1.7 times Japan’s total direct imports from Australia, its largest LNG supplier. Resales amounted to around four times the volumes purchased from Malaysia, Japan’s second-largest LNG supplier.

Japan resold more LNG to other countries in 2024 than the total volume of LNG produced in Russia, the world’s fourth-largest LNG exporter.”

IEEFA anticipates  that …”nuclear restarts and the uptake of renewables in Japan are expected to further reduce LNG demand in the coming years. … Japanese energy companies are likely to play an even more active role as LNG traders. The country’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan foresees demand falling to as low as 53 million tonnes by 2040 — a 20% reduction from current levels.” 

The African Connection 

Major LNG projects in Africa are undergoing rapid development in 2026, driven by over $50Billion in investments, primarily in Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, and Tanzania, aiming to turn the continent into a global energy supplier.

Given the need for continued diversity and security of supply will African LNG projects become part of Europe’s energy mix?

Key and Emerging LNG Projects:

• Mozambique:
  • Mozambique LNG (Area1): Operated by TOTALEnergies this $20 billion project is restarting in 2026 after a force majeure suspension, with 13Million Tonnes Per Annum (MMTPA) capacity planned.
  • Rovuma LNG: Led by ExxonMobil, a $30Billion project with a Final Investment Decision (FID) expected in 2026, aiming for 18MMTPA.
  • Coral Sul FLNG: Currently producing 3.4MMTPA, with the $7.2Billion Coral Norte FLNG project approved to double capacity by 2028.
• Tanzania:
  • Likong’o-Mchinga LNG: A $42Billion project involving Shell and Equinor is moving toward a 2026 FID, targeting 10MMTPA capacity.
• West Africa (Nigeria, Senegal, Congo):
  • Nigeria LNG(NLNG): Continues operation, with new, smaller projects like the 2.8MMTPA FLNG project anticipated by 2028.
  • Greater Tortue Ahmeyim(GTA)FLNG(Senegal/ Mauritania):
  • Developing offshore gas to commercialize resources without large onshore plants and involving BP and Kosmos Energy.
  • Congo LNG: ENI is developing the first natural gas liquefaction project in the Republic of Congo.

Some Final Conclusions

Will natural gas prices continue on an upward trend? Europe-given that gas storages are currently not yet being replenished—are taking a wait-and-see-attitude.

South Korea and Japan—both highly dependent on imported LNG—are taking steps to continuing reducing LNG imports and building on renewables which are seen to be very competitive with fossil fuels.

African LNG projects should be warned: get your project approved and ensure you have a final investment decision …otherwise it could become a future stranded asset!

 Gerard Kreeft, BA (Calvin University, Grand Rapids, USA) and MA (Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada), Energy Transition Adviser, was founder and owner of EnergyWise.  He has managed and implemented energy conferences, seminars and university master classes in Alaska, Angola, Brazil, Canada, India, Libya, Kazakhstan, Russia and throughout Europe.  Gerard has Dutch and Canadian citizenship and resides in the Netherlands.  He writes on a regular basis for Africa Oil + Gas Report, and contributes to IEEFA(Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis). His book the 10 commandments of the Energy Transition is now on sale at  Bookstorehttps://books.friesenpress.com/store/title/119734000211674846/Gerard-Kreeft-The-10-Commandments-of-the-Energy-Transition

By Gerard Kreeft

Just at a time when there was a global over-supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the current Middle-East crisisunfolded and with it some surprising outcomes.

Most interesting and providential has been Japan: not its need for importing LNG but because of its buying and re-selling its imported LNG to other Asian countries. In essence this infra-trading is creating a new sub-market.

With much of the Middle-East in turmoil this emerging Japanese sub-market is potentially being expanded to include upstream investments in LNG projects in Africa, Canada and the USA thus ensuring future security and diversity of supply.

The over-supply of Japanese LNG will in the coming days will be a buffer for the effective  loss of some 20% of global LNG: lost because of  closure of the Strait of Hormuz and QatarEnergy’s declaration of force majeure of LNG shipments from Ras Laffan.

How this new sub-market was created

Sam Reynolds, Research Lead LNG/Gas Asia at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) recently posted an insightful analysis how Japan is coping with its over-abundance of LNG.

”40% of all LNG volumes handled by Japanese companies are sold elsewhere, up from just 16% in FY2018”, according to Reynolds.

“Japan’s resales of LNG to foreign markets continued to reach new highs in 2024, up nearly 15% compared to the previous year.”

 “The country’s domestic consumption of LNG marginally increased but has fallen by nearly 20% since 2018, according to the latest LNG handling survey of 30 companies conducted by the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC).”

 Yet ”Japanese energy companies and trading houses are increasingly targeting overseas markets, aiming to capitalize on arbitrage opportunities and develop long-term relationships with customers abroad,” the IEEFA analyst explains.

..”Japanese companies and policymakers have persistently lobbied foreign governments to facilitate the development of upstream gas production and LNG export projects, citing energy security concerns”.

“In 2024, Japanese LNG resales were approximately 1.7 times Japan’s total direct imports from Australia, its largest LNG supplier. Resales amounted to around four times the volumes purchased from Malaysia, Japan’s second-largest LNG supplier.

Japan resold more LNG to other countries in 2024 than the total volume of LNG produced in Russia, the world’s fourth-largest LNG exporter.”

IEEFA anticipates  that …”nuclear restarts and the uptake of renewables in Japan are expected to further reduce LNG demand in the coming years. … Japanese energy companies are likely to play an even more active role as LNG traders. The country’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan foresees demand falling to as low as 53Million tonnes by 2040 — a 20% reduction from current levels.” 

 Shell’s Outlook

In its 2025 LNG Outlook Shell presents a bullish LNG future: “The global trade in LNG is set to rise significantly by 2040, driven by Asian economic growth, the need to decarbonize heavy industry and transport and the emerging growth in the energy-intense tech sector.”

Shell’s bullish outlook is both in IEEFA’s and my analysis much too optimistic!

Shell’s 2025 LNG Outlook was published prior to the current Middle-East energy crisis. Yet the report is deadly silent about the LNG intra-trading taking place within Asia. Instead, we are presented a story of growth–albeit a slower growth in Asia:

“Global trade in LNG reached 407Million tonnes in 2024, an increase of just 3Million tonnes from 2023, the lowest annual supply addition for 10 years”.

Japan’s Rainmaker Role

Between 2013-2023 Japanese public institutions–Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC), Nippon Export and Investment Insurance (NEXI), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and Development Bank of Japan (DBJ)– provided a $93Billion in support for overseas oil and gas projects between 2013 and 2023 fiscal years (April 2013 to March 2024), of which  45% of finance concentrated on upstream investments.

A key note: Mozambique was the top recipient country–$8.2Billion—for the financing of the Rovuma Area 1 LNG project. 

Source: Solutions for Our Climate (SFOC), Oil Change International (OCI), and Japan Center for a Sustainable Environment and Society (JACSES)

 Reynolds says that most of the new deals  are with US producers because of the inherent flexibility of US contracts, allowing buyers to determine the  final destination. In the past deals with Qatar were rather rigid but are  now are starting to  contain terms for destination flexibility and diversion rights.

Japan’s infra-trading will no doubt be expanded to include Africa, Canada and the USA.

The African Connection 

Major LNG projects in Africa are undergoing rapid development in 2026, driven by over $50Billion in investments, primarily in Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, and Tanzania, aiming to turn the continent into a global energy supplier.

Given the need for continued diversity and security of supply, Asian and most likely Japanese buyers will undoubtedly lock in more LNG supplies in spite of the rising cost.

Key and Emerging LNG Projects:

• Mozambique:
  • Mozambique LNG (Area1): Operated by TOTALEnergies this $20Billion project is restarting in 2026 after a force majeure suspension, with 13Million Tonnes Per Annum (MMTPA) capacity planned.
  • Rovuma LNG: Led by ExxonMobil, a $30Billion project with a Final Investment Decision (FID) expected in 2026, aiming for 18 MMTPA.
  • Coral Sul FLNG: Currently producing 3.4 mtpa, with the $7.2Billion Coral Norte FLNG project approved to double capacity by 2028.
• Tanzania:
  • Likong’o-Mchinga LNG: A $42Billion project involving Shell and Equinor is moving toward a 2026 FID, targeting 10MMTPA capacity.
• West Africa (Nigeria, Senegal, Congo):
  • Nigeria LNG(NLNG): Continues operation, with new, smaller projects like the 2.8 MMTPA FLNG project anticipated by 2028.
  • Greater Tortue Ahmeyim(GTA)FLNG(Senegal/ Mauritania):
  • Developing offshore gas to commercialize resources without large onshore plants and involving BP and Kosmos Energy.
  • Congo LNG: ENI is developing the first natural gas liquefaction project in the Republic of Congo.

Key Canadian LNG Projects

• LNG Canada (Kitimat): The largest private-sector project in Canadian history, this joint venture (Shell, Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi, KOGAS) has been exporting LNG since 2025. Phase 1 features two trains with an export capacity of 14MMTPA.
• Cedar LNG (Kitimat): A partnership with the Haisla Nation, this floating facility confirmed its Final Investment Decision (FID) in June 2024, with operations expected by late 2028.
• Ksi Lisims LNG (Pearse Island): A proposed 12 MMTPA floating project, this is a collaboration between the Nisg̱a’a Nation, Western LNG, and Rockies LNG, currently in the regulatory process.
• Woodfibre LNG (Squamish): Under construction, this project is located near Vancouver.
• Tilbury LNG (Delta): Operated by FortisBC, this facility is planning Phase 2 expansion to increase capacity.

Key USA Active and Developing LNG Projects

• Corpus Christi LNG (TX): Operating with expansion projects (Trains 8 & 9) reaching positive Final Investment Decision (FID) in June 2025.
• Rio Grande LNG (TX): Phase 2 development.
• Port Arthur LNG (TX): Phase 2 contracted 1.4 Bcf/d in 2025.
• Cameron LNG (LA): Major operating facility with further development.
• Plaquemines LNG (LA): Shipped first cargo in 2025.
• Golden Pass LNG (TX): First train expected to start in early 2026.
• Commonwealth LNG (LA): 9.5MMTPA terminal project.
• CP2 LNG (LA): Phase 1 expected in 2027.
• Alaska LNG: Project currently in development.

Some Final Comments

Wittingly or unwittingly Japan’s infra-trading is creating a new LNG sub-market: LNG marketeers always anxious to ensure they can ship their energy molecules are religiously avoiding any shipping in the Gulf region. Who can blame them! And who will benefit? Certainly, LNG projects in Africa, Canada and the USA will deliver their final LNG  cargoes somewhere in Asia, staying far away from the Gulf region.

What Japan has historically been doing—investing in overseas projects—will be vastly increased to ensure its security and diversity of supply. Other countries will follow.

And the USA?

It has become the world’s largest exporter of LNG, having secured the top spot in 2022 and maintaining it through 2026 with record- setting exports surpassing 10Million metric tonnes in a single month for the first time in October 2025, primarily supplying Europe and Asia. Expect a continued upturn from Asian and African countries in USA LNG projects to ensure their diversity and security of supplies.

 Gerard Kreeft, BA (Calvin University, Grand Rapids, USA) and MA (Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada), Energy Transition Adviser, was founder and owner of EnergyWise.  He has managed and implemented energy conferences, seminars and university master classes in Alaska, Angola, Brazil, Canada, India, Libya, Kazakhstan, Russia and throughout Europe.  Gerard has Dutch and Canadian citizenship and resides in the Netherlands.  He writes on a regular basis for Africa Oil + Gas Report, and contributes to IEEFA(Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis). His book the 10 commandments of the Energy Transition is now on sale at  Bookstorehttps://books.friesenpress.com/store/title/119734000211674846/Gerard-Kreeft-The-10-Commandments-of-the-Energy-Transition

By Macson Obojemuinmoin, in Warri

Chevron Nigeria’s natural gas output has bounced back, averaging 318 Million standard cubic feet per day (318MMscf/d) in January 2026, the first Month-on-Month increase since October 2025.

It was a 21% jump from the 263MMscf/d averaged in December 2025, but it fell far short of the 513.4MMscf/d produced in October 2025, when the decline began.

The circumstances leading to the 50% plunge in utilization of the company’s Escravos Gas (Processing) Plant (EGP) between October and December 2025, were not explained by the Nigeria Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), which provided this data in its monthly factsheets.

Africa Oil+Gas Report learned that a key cause of…

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By Prospect Mejebi, in Owerri

Seplat Energy has announced the achievement of first gas from the 300Million standard cubic feet per day capacity (MMscf/d) ANOH gas project in the Eastern Niger Delta.

“Following completion of the 11kilometre Indorama gas export pipeline and receipt of regulatory approval from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), on Friday January 16 2026, ANOH Gas Processing Company (AGPC) commenced gas supply to Indorama, under a firm and interruptible off take Gas Sales Agreements (GSAs)”, Seplat says in a release.  “To enable the flow of gas, the four upstream wells, which had been on standby since November 2025, were brought online”.

The GSA calls for up to 80MMscf/d of gas from ANOH to Indorama Petrochemical Plant, Nigeria’s second largest Petrochemicals manufacturing facility(With a total production capacity. of 360,000 Tonnes of Ethylene and 120,000Tonnes of Polyethylene per annum, it comes a distant second to Dangote’s 900,000Tonnes of Polyethylene per annum).

“Since first gas, wet gas production has been stabilizing, delivering 40-52 MMscf/d of processed gas directly from the ANOH gas plant to the Indorama Petrochemical Plant”, Seplat reports. “Condensate production has reached between 2,000 and 2,500Barrels of Oil Equivalent per day (BOEPD) and is expected to increase with gas production as the plant ramps up to design capacity”.

The original plan was to evacuate over half of ANOH gas into the Nigerian market through the ObIafu-Obrikom-Oben(OB3) pipeline, but the eastern part of the pipeline, under construction by NNPC since 2014, has remained uncompleted.

For this inability to pump Nigerian gas into the Nigerian economy on account of sheer incompetence of the National Oil Company, the ANOH Gas project operators had to look towards export.

Seplat’s statement declares:  “Preparations are underway to initiate sales of processed gas to the Nigeria LNG (NLNG) with an offtake agreement structured on an interruptible basis and will support the gas plant to further scale production towards full design capacity of 300MMscf/d”.

The ANOH gas plant was developed by AGPC, an incorporated joint venture between Seplat Energy and the NGIC. The integrated plant consists of two 150 MMscf/d gas processing units, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) recovery units, condensate stabilization units, a 16MW power plant and other supporting facilities, and has been built to operate with zero routine flares.

Across the unitised field of Oil Mining Leases (OMLs) 53 and OML 21, the ANOH gas plant unlocks an estimated 4.6Trillion cubic feet (Tcf) condensate rich gas resource base. Seplat’s working interest 2P reserves in the unitised field, as booked at year end 2024, stood at 0.8Tcf.  Seplat will derive value from two distinct income streams: wet gas sales from OML 53 to the ANOH gas plant, and dividends from its 50% equity ownership in AGPC.

Seplat’s release claims, without stating exact figures, that “the LPG produced from ANOH, combined with the LPG production at Sapele and the Bonny River Terminal (BRT), will make Seplat a leading supplier of clean cooking fuel to the domestic market”.

The statement adds that the ANOH gas plant will process the flared gas from the Ohaji field, enabling Seplat to achieve its onshore End of Routine Flaring programme, a key commercial and sustainability initiative for the company.

The ANOH gas plant has been developed without a single recordable Lost Time Incident (LTI) across 17.5Million-man hours, a testament to the focus of the whole team on safe and secure operations.

Italian major ENI has launched the Hull of the Coral North Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) vessel, a performative event, in line with the project’s schedule.

Coral North will be the second next-generation floating LNG facility to be located in the Rovuma basin, offshore Cabo Delgado, northern Mozambique, and will produce gas from the northern part of the Coral field on the Area 4 Licence in deepwater.

With a liquefaction production capacity of 3.6Million tonnes per year (MMTPA), Coral North will double Mozambique’s total LNG production to 7 MMTPA. This milestone will position the country as Africa’s third-largest LNG producer and exporter, strengthening its role as a key player in the global energy landscape.

The launch of a Hull marks the moment the vessel’s main structure is floated for the first time, a crucial part of the pre- installation,  before outfitting and integration of processing modules ahead of offshore deployment. The event was witnessed in Geoje, South Korea by Estevão Pale, Mozambique’s Minister of Mineral Resources, Guido Brusco and ENI’s Chief Operating Officer, Global Natural Resources.

Leveraging the knowledge and experience gained since the start of production at Coral South in 2022, Coral North is designed to deliver greater efficiency and performance optimization, while reducing costs and minimizing execution risks, with the aim of completing the project by 2028, ENI said in a release.

ENI first discovered natural gas in Mozambique’s vast deepwater Rovuma Basin in 2011, five years after it showed up in the country. From 2011 to 2014, the company discovered the Coral, Mamba Complex, and Agulha fields, with approximately 85Trillion cubic feet of gas in place. Coral South, the first gas production project from the Basin, has already successfully delivered over 135 LNG cargoes to the market.