In order to stem the rapid decline in natural gas output, North Africa’s three large hydrocarbon producing countries have announced upstream oil and gas bid rounds.
“Calls for bids in Libya and Algeria are notable for the fact that they are happening after a long absence”, notes Mostefa Ouki, the Algerian energy analyst, in a new paper North Africa Gas: Producers aim to preserve export role published as a comment by the Oxford Institute for Energy Sttudies (OIES) of which Mr. Ouki is a senior research fellow.
Meanwhile, Egypt’s ongoing bid round was issued in August 2024.
Ouki stresses that these licensing rounds have a natural gas focus. Egypt’s bid round offers twelve blocks for ‘natural gas exploration in the Mediterranean and Nile Delta’ under Egypt’s production sharing agreement model. The closing date for the submission of bids is February 25, 2025. Algeria launched its upstream bid round in October 2024, ten years after its last bid round was issued. In this bid round, six onshore perimeters are offered to potential investors and are governed by Algeria’s latest and improved 2019 Hydrocarbons Law. It was also announced that a bid round will be launched in the country every year until 2028.
In the Algerian round, Mr. Ouki explains, “Four perimeters are offered under the production sharing contract model and the remaining two are covered by the participation contract. All the perimeters, bar one, on offer in this Algerian bid round are in natural gas-prone areas. Bids are to be submitted in April 2025, with the signing of contracts scheduled for the end of May 2025.
“These perimeters are ‘characterized by the presence of known hydrocarbon basins and the proximity to the nearby infrastructure, which facilitates their development’”, the comment notes.
Out of the three countries, Libya’s intention to launch a bid round remains an intention. “ In early December 2024, the Chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced that a bid round would be launched by the end of December 2024, the first since its last licensing round in 2008. But this did not happen and could possibly be delayed to early 2025”, Ouki’s paper remarks.
“Twenty-two onshore and offshore oil and gas concessions are expected to be included in this bid round.
“Exports of gas molecules from these countries have increasingly been constrained by field production declines, insufficient upstream gas developments, and a high domestic consumption of natural gas.
“Since 2021, Egypt and Libya’s natural gas production has declined significantly exerting intense pressure on their export potential. Between 2021 and 2024, North Africa’s total gas exports fell by close to 30 per cent. The largest drop in gas exports was in Egypt due to a substantial decline in gas production and persistently high domestic gas consumption. Libya’s gas exports remain severely constrained by the rising need to supply gas to its domestic market, field production decline, the impact of continued internal political strife, and a hiatus in investments by international oil and gas companies.
“Algeria remains by far the subregion’s largest natural gas producer and exporter. But in the long-term, its gas export levels could be limited if no major upstream gas investments are made, and its domestic gas consumption is not managed”, Ouki explains.