By Paul Dozie Arinze
OPINION/ANALYSIS
Well begone is half done. – Aristotle.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited, NNPC, has been given a new Board to steer it towards national economic and energy policy. It has also come a new management team, with Engineer Bayo Ojulari as Group CEO, to recharge business performance and operational execution.
This leadership reset comes at a pivotal moment for Nigeria’s state oil company, the arrowhead of Nigeria’s position as the top oil producer in Africa, and the 12th largest resource-owning national oil company in the world by oil reserves size, and among the top 10 by gas reserves. Tectonic shifts have taken place in the operating landscape, meaning strategic outcomes must be earned, rather than flow from the status quo. The corporation has become a commercial entity, resulting from the overarching four-year-old Petroleum Industry Act. The joint venture operated fields have changed hands from international majors to emergent indigenous operators. Gasoline import subsidy has been removed, and refining is now predominantly local. Meanwhile global oil and gas prices are still sluggish, and recent tariff wars pile pressure on demand, costs, and margins. There is also the persisting push for energy transition, and the reality of OPEC quotas.
It has been widely acknowledged that the new leadership brings private-sector expertise to NNPC, and a represents a renewed focus on efficiency, transparency, and energy transition. This article provides an overview of NNPC’s corporate performance, strategic direction, and challenges under the new management leadership as of July 2025, with comparisons to leading African and emerging-market peers, while highlighting early wins which need to be sustained and scaled.
Leadership Transition and Strategic Vision
The appointment of Mr. Ojulari, an industry veteran formerly Managing Director of Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo), in April 2025, has received much acclaim by industry stakeholders, who expect a sharper commercial focus and accelerated reforms, given his pedigree.
In his first address as Group CEO, Ojulari stated: “NNPC must deliver value for all Nigerians by operating transparently, efficiently, and with a clear focus on the future of energy.”
Based on Bayo’s public statements, the new management team’s early priorities include:
- Driving operational efficiency through digital transformation and cost management.
- Accelerating gas development for domestic industrialization and export growth.
- Strengthening governance and transparency, with a commitment to timely publication of audited accounts and preparation for NNPC’s planned IPO.
- Building partnerships and fostering innovation to attract investment and deploy new technologies.
NNPC’s Role in Nigeria’s Economic and Energy Agenda
NNPC remains central to Nigeria’s ambitions for economic diversification, energy security, and emissions reduction. The following are currently some of the officially declared national energy policy objectives related to NNPC’s role as a now commerialised national oil company.
– Increase oil production toward OPEC quota of 1.8Million barrels per day (MMBOPD).
– Expand domestic gas utilization for power and industry.
– Reduce fiscal reliance on crude exports by growing non-oil revenue.
– Advance energy transition with gas and renewables, targeting net-zero by 2060.
Revenue and profit have continued to grow, with H1 2025 maintaining the positive trend. Oil production has stabilized, though still below pre-2020 highs due to security and infrastructure challenges. Gas output is rising, reflecting Ojulari’s focus on gas-led growth. Overall half year performance trend is healthy, credit to new management priorities, and need to be sustained against financial, operational and quota constraints.
Given its relatively low production base, NNPC’s revenue is appreciable in absolute figures. Yet, given the volume of reserves available to be produced, compared to peers, the leadership of NNPC has its work well cut out. Early efforts at transparent and timely reporting of financial and operating results will serve the corporation’s strategies very well.
NNPC’s oil P/R ratio (1.65%) is moderate, reflecting large reserves but relatively low production rates compared to Petrobras and Sonatrach. The gas P/R ratio (0.85%) is low, highlighting significant untapped potential and room for accelerated gas development. Petrobras’s higher ratios indicate more aggressive resource monetization, while Sonatrach leads Africa in active reserve utilization. NNPC’s cautious pace provides a cushion for future growth but also underscores the need to boost efficiency, especially in gas, as Nigeria seeks to industrialize and expand exports. Moreover, consideration must go to global decarbonization risk to eventual hydrocarbon reserves development.
– NNPC’s governance reforms have accelerated, with a partial IPO still planned for 2028.
– Audited financials are now published annually and independently verified, a significant improvement from earlier years.
Strategic Initiatives and Recent Developments
– Gas Expansion: The AKK pipeline is 80% complete as of July 2025, with first deliveries expected by year-end. LNG exports are up 8% year-on-year.
– Refining: The Dangote Refinery, with NNPC as a 7% stakeholder, began commercial operations in March 2024, reducing Nigeria’s fuel import bill by $2.5Billion in the first half of 2025.
– Regional Integration: NNPC is negotiating new gas supply deals with Ghana and Benin, aiming to become a regional gas hub.
Challenges and Constraints Remain
As the new management cranks up the NNPC machine, the old challenges and legendary issue remain and will be compounded by a giddy energy market and complicated fiscal situation. Below are some of the moving parts the new captains much keep in focus and as they progress demonstrate success on.
- Security and Oil Theft:
Pipeline vandalism and theft remain issues, though incidents have dropped by 30% since 2023. Losses still average 120,000BOPD.
- Regulatory Uncertainty:
The Petroleum Industry Act has improved the investment climate, but delays in downstream deregulation and gas pricing reforms persist.
- Capital Access:
The planned IPO is closely watched. Success will depend on continued governance improvements and investor confidence in oil and gas.
- Global Energy Transition:
NNPC faces pressure to decarbonize, with international lenders tightening criteria for oil and gas financing.
Opportunities and Strategic Levers
- Gas Industrialization:
Nigeria’s gas reserves exceed 206rillion cubic feet. A successful gas push could transform the power sector and create new export opportunities.
- Petrochemicals and Value Addition:
NNPC’s new partnerships in fertilizer and methanol production are starting to support non-oil export growth.
- Capital Market Access:
A successful NNPC initial public offer could unlock new funding and drive further governance improvements, as seen with Petrobras. As IPO’s go though, especially when there are competing investment options, success will require deftly calibrated implementation, robust investor targeting and solid fundamentals, as investors will be voting as much for potential as for capacity. And there are reputational risks to overcome.
- Regional Energy Leadership:
Nigeria is well placed to become West Africa’s main supplier of gas and refined products, leveraging new infrastructure. As regional market beckons, new refining capacity sufficient for export and a renewed focus on tangible commercialization of gas will deliver on the opportunity.
Major Global Energy Events and Issues
Several major global and national energy events, issues, and deadlines in 2025 and 2026 are poised to test, and if successful, demonstrate NNPC’s new strategic direction under Bayo Ojulari’s leadership. These milestones reflect both the company’s internal reforms and its response to broader shifts in the energy landscape.
– COP30 (November 2025, Brazil)
The UN Climate Change Conference will spotlight global commitments to decarbonization and energy transition. NNPC’s participation and potential announcements on gas and renewables will signal its alignment with climate goals and international expectations.
– OPEC+ Production Policy Reviews (Quarterly, 2025‚ 2026)
OPEC+ meetings will shape oil production quotas and market stability. NNPC’s ability to meet or exceed Nigeria’s quota consistently will reflect operational improvements and its role in global supply dynamics. These metrics will be factored in as OPEC considers Nigeria’s push for quota increase. Conversely, managing the quota ceiling without losing production will require NNPC working with regulators and partners to stimulate local refining and absorb production volumes, and to diversify export revenues from products not constrained by the quota, such as condensate.
– Global LNG Market Expansion (2025‚ 2026)
As new LNG projects come online worldwide, NNPC’s progress with Nigeria LNG expansion and new gas export deals will demonstrate its competitiveness in the evolving gas market.
– International Oil Company (IOC) Divestments in Africa
Ongoing IOC asset sales in Nigeria and elsewhere present opportunities for NNPC to acquire assets, form new partnerships, or increase domestic participation‚ showcasing a more assertive commercial strategy.
Key National Energy Events, Issues, and Deadlines
– AKK Gas Pipeline Commissioning (Expected Q4 2025)
The completion and commissioning of the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline will be a landmark for Nigeria’s gas industrialization agenda and a core test of NNPC’s project delivery under Ojulari.
– Dangote Refinery Full Ramp-Up (2025‚ 2026)
Achieving full operational capacity at the Dangote Refinery (where NNPC holds a 7% stake) will significantly reduce Nigeria’s fuel imports and demonstrate NNPC’s commitment to domestic value addition.
– NNPC Partial IPO (Planned 2026)
Preparations for NNPC’s partial listing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange and possibly international markets will test its governance reforms, transparency, and investor appeal‚ key markers of its new commercial orientation.
– Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) Implementation Deadlines
Full compliance with PIA provisions‚ especially around host community development, fiscal terms, and deregulation‚ will be closely watched by investors and the public as indicators of regulatory discipline and reform momentum.
– Gas Pricing and Market Reforms (Ongoing, 2025-2026)
Progress on domestic gas pricing reforms and market liberalization will be crucial for unlocking investment and expanding gas-based industries, aligning with Ojulari’s gas-led growth strategy.
– Renewable Energy Project Announcements
New solar, wind, or hybrid energy projects launched or commissioned by NNPC will highlight its diversification efforts and response to global energy transition pressures.
New Tax Regime
A portfolio of four wide-ranging federal tax laws was recently signed and will take effect from January 1, 2026. Major components of the new tax regime will impact NNPC as a corporate taxpayer, a major employer of taxpayers, and a contracted partner to large operators, and suppliers. In addition, its operations are linked to revenue collecting entities such as the regulators, fiscal roles are being redefined. NNPC’s response to the new tax and non-tax revenue regime will be visibly central to successful implementation and the prospect of achieving the intended economic goals. Besides, the corporation’s fiscal behavior, already watched as a commercial entity, will be further scrutinized in the run-up to an IPO.
These events and issues will test and define NNPC’s evolving strategy‚ demonstrate transparency, commercial discipline, gas-led growth, and alignment with energy transition‚ under its new leadership.
NNPC’s new management, under the direction of a reconstituted Board, has a pivotal window for to rest NNPC Limited. As CEO, Engineer Ojulari’s private-sector experience and declared reform agenda are already driving operational improvements and greater transparency. NNPC’s production-to-reserves ratios reveal both a solid resource base and the need for more aggressive production, especially in gas, to fully realize Nigeria’s energy ambitions. While challenges remain‚ particularly around security, regulation, and the global energy transition‚ NNPC under the new management appears more transparent, increasingly competitive, and strategically aligned with the country’s goals.
The wide scope of the prevailing issues will test the new management’s ability to inspire its workforce, attract investors, constructively build trust with a broad spectrum of stakeholders and to connect purposefully with national aspirations in an era of intensified scrutiny. The company’s outlook is more optimistic than it has been in years, with the new leadership well curated and poised, offering a prospect of a true regional leader in integrated energy.
Note: Data for this article were synthesized from sources including NNPC reports and statements, NUPRC regulatory reports, OPEC reports, World Bank assessments, International Energy Agency reports, industry analytical platforms such as SBM Intelligence and Africa Oil+Gas Report, government policy statements, NOC websites, news reports, etc.
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Dr. Arinze is an energy policy and investment thought leader, consultant, and author.
